基于未确知测度的洞庭湖生态经济区生态风险评价研究——以气候变化为视角

Study on Ecological Risk Assessment of Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone Based on Unascertained Measure——From the Perspective of Climate Change

在全球气候变化背景下,气候生态风险评价已成为研究热点,如何控制风险源头和降低生态风险是当前急需解决的首要问题,但在气候生态风险的研究中鲜有气候致险因子与承载体结合定量评估气候生态风险。鉴于此,文章基于IPCC报告中气候风险构成因素,如灾害事件、暴露度、脆弱性等,结合洞庭湖生态经济区气候特征选取11个评价指标,引入处理不确定信息的未确知测度理论构建气候变化下洞庭湖生态经济区生态风险评价模型,利用2015~2019年洞庭湖区气象数据进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)根据多指标测度向量k_(0)>0.6,洞庭湖区生态风险等级划分为4级,呈重警,与预期设想和目前洞庭湖生态经济区所受自然灾害影响相符,说明了未确知测度方法对于气候变化生态风险研究的合理性和实用性;(2)从评价指标权重上看,降水波动情况是造成洞庭湖生态经济区气候风险的主导因素;(3)造成洞庭湖生态经济区气候风险的因素也有承载体,权重最大的是灾害涉及人数和生命易损指数,也进一步证明了仅气候变化不足以对其生态系统构成风险,人类活动和气候变化共同作用是区域生态风险的外在驱动。文章为洞庭湖生态经济区生态风险评价提供了全新的研究方法,探究了气候变化对生态风险的影响,为洞庭湖生态经济区适应气候变化、应对生态风险提供依据和参考。

Under the background of global climate change,climate ecological risk assessment has become a research hotspot.How to prevent the source of risk and reduce ecological risk is the primary problem to be solved at present.However,in the research of climate ecological risk,few climate risk factors are combined with carriers to quantitatively assess climate ecological risk.In view of this,based on the climate risk components"disaster events,exposure,vulnerability"in IPCC report,and combining with the climate characteristics of Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone,this paper selects 11 evaluation indicators,introduces the unascertained measure theory to deal with uncertain information,constructs the ecological risk evaluation model of Dongting Lake Eco-economic Zone under climate change,and makes an empirical analysis by using the meteorological data of Dongting Lake from 2015 to 2019.The results show that:(1)According to the multi-index measure vector K_(0)>0.6,the ecological risk level of Dongting Lake area is 4,which is a heavy warning.This is consistent with the expected assumption and the influence of natural disaster conditions on Dongting Lake ecological economic zone at present,which shows the rationality and practicability of unascertained measure method for the study of ecological risk of climate change.(2)In terms of the weight of the evaluation indicators,the precipitation fluctuation is the leading factor causing climate risk in Dongting Lake eco-economic zone.(3)The climate risk in Dongting Lake ecoeconomic zone is also affected by the carrier,with the largest weight being the number of people involved in the disaster and the vulnerability index of life,which further proves that climate change alone is not enough to pose a risk to its ecosystem,and the joint action of human activities and climate change is the external driving force of regional ecological risk.This paper provides a new research method for ecological risk assessment in Dongting Lake area,explores the impact of climate change on ecological risk,and provides basis and reference for Dongting Lake ecological economic zone to adapt to climate change and deal with ecological risk.