基于前景理论应急预案处置工序的执行状态优化问题研究

Research on execution state optimization of emergency plan disposal process based on prospect theory

针对突发事件演化发展具有较强不确定性的特点,基于前景理论从微观层面提出一种应急预案处置工序的执行状态优化方法。首先,通过描述突发事件应急决策过程中决策者的心理感知行为并考虑处置工序执行状态选择不当所造成的损失构建损失模型;然后,依据前景理论价值函数和权重函数的思想,计算应急预案处置工序在不同执行状态下的综合前景值,并选取最优值作为工序的执行状态,实现对应急处置工序执行状态的动态优化。最后,通过案例验证所提出方法的可行性与有效性。结果表明,该方法能够在考虑应急决策者的心理行为特征的同时,减少应急处置的损失,最大化应急资源的利用效率,提高应急处置效率和突发事件的应对能力。

This paper is aimed to optimize the emergency plan from the level of emergency plan disposal process based on the decision-making idea of prospect theory,so as to improve the efficiency of emergency disposal and the ability of emergency response.First,the description of emergency decision problems consider the psychological behavior of decision-makers,the psychological and behavioral characteristics of decision makers,such as reference dependence,loss avoidance and probability distortion,are the key points we need to pay attention to in the process of emergency decision-making;Then,the execution state of emergency disposal process is divided into three kinds:start,suspend and close,from the perspective of emergency resources,for the emergency plans under implementation,The possible losses caused by improper selection of the execution status of the disposal process are mainly divided into the shortage of resources preparation,the idle loss when resources are excessive,the opportunity cost loss of resources and the loss when execution status is switched,the establishment of this model based on the loss;Next,according to the idea of value function and weight function of prospect theory,the comprehensive foreground value of the process in three execution states is calculated,and the optimal one is selected as the next execution state of the process;Finally,the application of a deep foundation pit system failure case,verify feasibility and validity of the proposed method.The results show that the method can reflect the psychological and behavioral characteristics of emergency decision makers,make the emergency decision process more realistic,the decision-making scheme more reasonable,and decision makers more acceptable.Meanwhile,timely adjustment of the execution state of the disposal process can reduce the loss of emergency disposal,maximize the utilization efficiency of emergency resources,and improve the efficiency of emergency disposal and the ability to deal with emergencies.