高粱种植经济效益与农户种植高粱影响因素实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Economic Benefit of Sorghum Planting and Influencing Factors of Farmers Planting Sorghum

随着高粱产业的日益发展,河北省已成为南方酒厂糯高粱生产的重要基地。2018年和2019年河北省阜城县连续两年举办了农民丰收节暨红高粱文化节,展示了阜城县高粱产业的蓬勃发展局面。通过对阜成县3个乡镇15个村庄149户高粱种植户调研数据的分析,指出了2019年阜城地区高粱种植的经济效益和存在的问题;同时通过二元Logistic模型进行种植影响因素分析,得出高粱单产、价格、是否有农业补贴及种子价格起到显著影响效果,另外通过调研和数据整理,发现了阜城地区存在农业人口老龄化凸显、土地面积零散难以流转、销售得不到有效保障等突出问题。在此基础上,提出了加强科技投入、加强政策落实、加强引导作用、实行订单模式作为保障的对策建议。

With the development of sorghum industry,Hebei province has become an important base of waxy sorghum production in southern wineries.Fucheng county held the Farmers Harvest Festival and Red Sorghum Culture Festival for two consecutive years of 2018 and 2019,which showed the vigorous development of sorghum industry in Fucheng county.Through the analysis of the investigation data of 149 sorghum growers of 15 villages in 3 towns in Fucheng,the economic benefits and existing problems of sorghum planting in Fucheng area in 2019 were pointed out,at the same time,the influencing factors of planting were analyzed by binary Logistic model.It was concluded that sorghum yield,price,whether there were agricultural subsidies and seed prices have significant effects.In addition,through the investigation and data collation,it was found that there are outstanding problems in Fucheng area,such as the prominent aging of agricultural population,the scattered land area and the difficulty of circulation,and the lack of effective sales guarantee and so on.On this basis,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward from strengthening investment in science and technology,strengthening policy implementation,strengthening guiding role,and implementing order mode as guarantee.