中国租赁住房发展的区域差异与影响因素

Exploring Regional Disparity and Influencing Factors of Rental House Development in China

加快培育和发展住房租赁市场,是新时代中国住房制度改革的重要内容。基于2000年和2010年全国分县人口普查数据,运用GIS空间统计方法和空间计量模型,实证分析了中国337个地级以上城市的租赁住房发展区域差异与影响因素。研究表明:2000—2010年,中国租赁住房发展经历了"空间分散化"向"空间集聚"的发展态势,租赁住房发展高值区向长三角和珠三角城市群、西部地区的部分区域中心城市以及北京、厦门等经济发达城市更加靠拢;中国租赁住房发展和变化存在显著的空间集聚特征,且空间集聚趋势越来越强,而不同时期的中国租赁住房发展热点区分布有所变迁;空间计量模型表明,二三产业从业人员比例、住宅价格、租售比、外来人口比例、常住人口、65岁以上人口比例、家庭户规模和平均受教育年限等因素是影响2010年中国租赁住房发展区域差异的显著因素;而2000—2010年中国租赁住房发展变化主要与常住人口、外来人口比例、人均住房面积、65岁以上人口比例、平均受教育年限和少数民族比例等因素有关。

Accelerating rental house market development is an important part of housing system reform in China for the new era.Based on China counties census data in 2000 and 2010,this article empirically studies regional disparity and influencing factors of rental house development for 337 cities at prefecture level and above using GIS spatial statistical method and spatial econometric models.Results indicate:1)From 2000 to2010,rental house development in China has experienced a change trend from"spatial decentralization"to"spatial agglomeration",and the high-value areas of rental house development are mainly located in urban agglomerations of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,several regional central cities in the Western region,and several economically developed cities like Beijing and Xiamen.2)There is a significant spatial clustering for rental house development in China and its change in 2000—2010,and increased spatial clustering intensity is observed.As for local spatial autocorrelation,hot spots distribution of rental housing development in China varies by different period.3)Spatial econometric model shows that impact factors of proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary industries,housing prices,ratio of rent and sale,proportion of migrant population,permanent population,proportion of population over 65 years old,families size and average educational year all have a significant effect on regional disparity of rental housing development in 2010.Rental house development change in 2000—2010 are mainly related to permanent population,proportion of migrant population,per capita housing area,proportion of population over 65 years old,average educational year and proportion of ethnic minorities.