哈长城市群城市韧性的时空格局演变及动态模拟研究

Evolution and Dynamic Simulation of the Temporal-Spatial Pattern of Urban Resilience in Harbin-Changchun Urban Group

哈长城市群作为引领东北地区高质量发展的重要增长极,其城市韧性的提升对提高东北地区高质量发展的强韧性及可持续性具有重要意义。以2010—2018年哈长城市群11个地级市为例,基于"生态-经济-社会-工程"的评估框架构建城市韧性评价体系。采用熵权-TOPSIS评价模型对哈长城市群城市韧性进行综合测度,并运用ArcGIS空间分析工具、BP神经网络模型等方法探讨其时空格局演变规律及动态模拟。结果表明:①哈长城市群城市韧性整体水平较低;较高、高度韧性主要分布在核心地区,呈"点状零散"分布,低度、较低韧性主要分布在外围地区,呈"边缘广泛分布"的空间格局。②从其演化趋势类型特征看,2010—2018年,呈发散趋势的城市多于呈收敛趋势的城市,表明城市韧性在演化过程中空间差异呈逐渐增大趋势。③经济恢复力、工资收入、金融资本、公共资源保障、教育水平、交通设施水平等是影响哈长城市群城市韧性的主要因素。④在动态模拟方面,2020—2030年,城市韧性发展较缓慢,韧性等级逐渐降低,且以一级韧性和二级韧性为主,韧性等级较高的城市所占比重较少。在未来发展趋势上,城市韧性时空差异明显,东西方向上呈现"东高西低"态势,在南北方向上呈"倒U型"式分布,表明哈长城市群内部核心城市韧性高点突出,多数外围城市韧性偏低。

The Harbin-Changchun Urban Group is an important growth pole leading the economic development of Northeast China.The improvement of urban resilience of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Group is of great significance to the promotion of the all-round revitalization of the Northeast region and the sustainable development of cities.This article takes 11 prefecture-level cities in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Group from 2010 to 2018 as examples,Constructing an urban resilience evaluation system based on the evaluation framework of"ecology-economy-society-engineering".Using the entropy weight-TOPSIS evaluation model to comprehensively measure the urban resilience of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Group,And using ARCGIS spatial analysis tools,BP neural network model,etc.to explore its temporal and spatial pattern evolution and dynamic simulation research.The result showed that:①The overall level of urban resilience in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Group is low.The higher and higher resilience is mainly distributed in the core area,which is distributed in"spots and scattered".The low and lower resilience are mainly distributed in the peripheral areas,showing a spatial pattern of"widely distributed on the edge".②Judging from the characteristics of the types of evolution trends,from 2010 to 2018,more cities showed a divergent trend than a convergent trend,indicating that the spatial differences in urban resilience gradually increased during the evolution process.③Economic resilience,wage income,financial capital,public resource protection,education level,and transportation facilities are the main factors that affect the resilience of the"Harbin-Changchun"urban agglomeration.④In terms of dynamic simulation,from 2020 to 2030,the development of urban resilience will be slower,and the resilience level will gradually decrease,and the first-level and second-level resilience are the main ones.Cities with higher resilience levels account for a smaller proportion.In terms of future development trends,the temporal and spatial differences of urban resilience are obvious.The east-west direction shows a trend of"high in the east and low in the west",with an"inverted U-shaped"distribution in the north-south direction,indicating that the high resilience points of individual core cities in the Harbin-Changchun Urban Group are prominent and Most marginal cities are characterized by low resilience.