旅游业发展产业协同与荷兰病效应研究——基于胡焕庸线的思考

Industrial Synergy of Tourism Development and Dutch Disease Effect:Consideration Based on the“Hu Line”

基于新古典经济增长理论,构建旅游业发展的产业结构效应理论分析模型,建立旅游业发展产业协同与荷兰病效应的评价指标,利用Theil指数及嵌套分解分析其时空差异的演变格局。以"胡焕庸线"为地理区域边界、以优秀旅游城市为关键节点,基于2000—2017年中国60个优秀旅游城市的面板数据进行实证分析显示:旅游业发展对第一、二、三产业的产业协同与荷兰病效应同时显著存在,总体上分别表现为荷兰病效应、较差的产业协同效应、较强的产业协同效应;时空演变的总体差异显著,呈现出"平稳递增-快速递减-平稳递减"的变化规律;旅游业快速发展的产业结构效应空间差异显著,不能有效突破"胡焕庸线"锁定的旅游经济地理格局。

As an important part of the economic development,the research on the industry driving ability of tourism development has always been one of the focuses of tourism economic research.Tourism has become a pillar industry in China.The geographer Hu Huanyong introduced western modern geography theories and methods to study China’s population and agriculture issues from the perspective of man-land relations,and proposed that the geographical distribution of the Chinese population is divided by the Heihe(Aihui)-Tengchong Line.Tourism activities are social,economic and geographical phenomena with the main characteristics of population mobility.At the same time,the development of tourism has a very important impact on the social and economic development and industrial structure of tourist destinations.To study the industrial structure effect of tourism development and to explore whether it has the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the"Hu line"is helpful to grasp the spatial differentiation law of tourism activities scientifically.Based on the neoclassical economic growth theory,this paper constructs the theoretical analysis model of the industrial structure effect of tourism development,establishes the evaluation index of tourism development industry synergy and Dutch Disease effect.With the"Hu line"for the geographical area boundary,with excellent tourism cities as the key node,based on the panel data of 60 excellent tourism cities in China from 2000 to 2017,the empirical analysis shows that:the tourism development of the first,second and third industry industrial coordination with the Netherlands effect significantly exist at the same time,the overall performance for the Dutch Disease effects respectively,with poor industry synergies,strong industrial synergies;The overall difference in time and space is significant,showing a change rule of"steady increase-fast decrease-steady decrease".The research on whether the industrial structure effect of tourism activities has the spatial distribution characteristics of the"Hu line"is helpful to grasp the spatial differentiation rules of tourism activities scientifically and deepen the understanding of the geographical spatial characteristics of the"Hu line"in the development of tourism in China.