中国区域水资源系统韧性与效率的发展协调关系评价

Evaluation of the Development Coordination Relationship Between Resilience and Efficiency of Regional Water Resources System in China

在界定水资源系统韧性概念的基础上,综合应用赋权法、SBM-DEA模型及发展协调度模型对2000—2016年全国31个省区的区域水资源系统的效率、韧性以及两者之间的发展协调关系进行评价。结果如下:①中国区域水资源系统效率整体上处于非有效区,在研究期间呈现出在波动中上升的趋势。②中国区域水资源系统韧性的平均值为0.39,总体水平较低,研究期间整体上呈波动上升趋势。③中国区域水资源系统效率与韧性的发展度总体呈现平稳上升—较快上升—急剧下降—上升的趋势,呈倒"U"型发展;协调度在研究期间呈现波动中上升趋势,大部分省区的发展度较好,而协调度较弱。④2000—2016年,水资源效率与韧性的发展协调度一直维持着"东-中-西"阶梯式递减格局,失调省区的数量降低,初级协调、中级协调、良好协调省区的数量逐渐提升,整体向协调趋势发展;空间格局上呈现由2000年倒"E"型对称式分布格局向如今北部围绕天津、中部围绕上海、南部围绕广东的三级格局演变,格局分布与中国三大经济区基本吻合,可知中国水资源系统效率与韧性的发展协调水平与经济发展水平之间有明显的关系.

On the basis of defining the concept of water resources system resilience,the comprehensive application of the weighting method,the SBM-DEA model,and the development coordination model for the efficiency,resilience,and both of regional water resources systems in 31 provinces and regions in China from2000 to 2016 Evaluation of the development coordination relationship.The results are as follows:1)The efficiency of China’s regional water resources system as a whole is in an ineffective zone,and it has shown an upward trend in fluctuations during the study period.2)The average toughness of regional water resources system in China is 0.39,which is low on the whole and fluctuates on the whole during the study period.3)The development degree of the efficiency and resilience of China’s regional water resources system generally shows a steady rise—rapid rise—rapid decline—increasing trend,showing an inverted"U"-shaped development;the degree of coordination shows an upward trend in fluctuation during the study period,and most provinces The development degree of the district is good,but the coordination degree is weak.4)From 2000 to 2016,the coordination degree of the development of water resources efficiency and resilience has maintained a"eastmiddle-west"stepwise decreasing pattern,the number of imbalanced provinces and regions has decreased,and the number of primary,intermediate,and well-coordinated provinces has gradually increased.The overall development is in a coordinated trend;the spatial pattern has evolved from an inverted"E"symmetrical distribution pattern in 2000 to a three-level pattern that now surrounds Tianjin in the north,Shanghai in the middle,and Guangdong in the south.The pattern distribution is similar to the three economic zones in China.Basically,we can see that there is a clear relationship between the level of coordinated development of the efficiency and resilience of China’s water resources system and the level of economic development.