碳市场风险对煤电经济性的影响研究

Research on the impact of carbon market risk on the economics of coal power

为实现气候变化目标,推动能源转型,我国提出了2030年碳排放达峰和2060年碳中和的目标,进一步推动了全国碳市场的建设工作,全国碳市场有望于2021年开始运行。煤电作为二氧化碳排放量最多的行业,首先被纳入碳市场的运行中,而碳市场的变动风险将对煤电经济性造成很大的影响。首先对煤电参与碳市场的风险进行了测算,发现我国大多数类型的机组参与碳市场会带来项目运营成本的增加。基于此构建了基于煤电项目的碳风险压力测试模型,通过结合VaR(风险值)和情景分析,以600 MW超临界煤电机组为例,测算了不同情景下煤电参与碳市场的成本损失与度电成本的变化。结果表明:碳市场运行初期对煤电项目经济性的影响较小,中长期内则会极大地增加发电成本,极端的碳价风险将会进一步扩大损失。最后对电力企业与金融机构参与碳市场提出了相应的建议。

In order to achieve climate change goals and promote the energy transition,China has proposed the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060,which will further promote the construction of the national carbon market,and it is expected to start operation next year. As the industry that emits the most carbon dioxide,coal power is first included in the operation of the carbon market,and the risk of changes in the carbon market will have a great impact on the economics of coal power. First,the risk of coal power participating in the carbon market was calculated,and it was found that the participation of most types of generating units in the carbon market in China would increase project operating costs. Based on this,a carbon risk stress test model based on coal power projects was constructed. By combining VaR(value at risk) 9 and scenario analysis,taking a 600 MW supercritical coal power unit as an example,the cost loss of coal power participating in the carbon market and the change in the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour are measured under different scenarios. The results show that the initial stage of the carbon market has a small impact on the economics of coal-fired power projects. In the medium and long term,it will greatly increase the cost of power generation. At the same time,extreme carbon price risks will further increase losses. Finally,corresponding suggestions are put forward for power companies and financial institutions to participate in the carbon market.