中国与印尼煤炭贸易市场风险的识别与化解研究

Research on identifying and resolving the market risks of coal trade between China and Indonesia

印尼是我国第一大煤炭进口来源国,但在双边煤炭贸易的过程中需要重视市场风险的产生。在分析两国煤炭贸易现状的基础上,构建中国与印尼煤炭贸易的市场风险综合指标体系,基于2000-2019年两国煤炭贸易年度数据,利用时序主成分分析法测度中国与印尼煤炭贸易过程中的市场风险并进行深入分析。研究发现,2000-2019年间两国煤炭贸易的市场风险呈波动下降趋势,市场风险中所占比重由大到小依次为供需风险、价格风险和外汇风险。根据所得结论,从政治、经济、社会和技术方面提出了化解对策。

Indonesia is China’s largest source of coal imports,but it is necessary to pay attention to the occurrence of market risks in the process of bilateral coal trade. Based on the analysis of the status of coal trade between the two countries,a comprehensive index system of market risk is constructed for China-Indonesia coal trade. Based on the annual data of coal trade between the two countries from 2000 to 2019,the time series principal component analysis method is used to measure the market risk in the coal trade process between China and Indonesia and conduct in-depth analysis. The study found that the market risk of coal trade between the two countries showed a fluctuating downward trend from 2000 to 2019. The proportion of market risk in descending order is supply and demand risk,price risk and foreign exchange risk. Based on the conclusions obtained,countermeasures were put forward from political,economic,social and technical aspects.