基于灰色预测模型的我国社区卫生服务发展研究

Prediction of the development of community health services in China based on a gray model

目的预测2020~2025年我国社区卫生服务发展情况,为我国社区卫生服务规划及实施状况提供评价和预估,为相关卫生部门制定策略提供科学依据。方法应用灰色GM(1,1)模型对我国社区卫生服务相关数据进行建模并预测2020~2025年的数据。结果2020~2025年我国社区卫生服务中心诊疗人次将逐年上升至9.04亿人次,病床使用率下降至52.0%,卫生人员数增至61.4万人次,医师日均担负诊疗人次增至18.3人次。结论灰色GM(1,1)模型可较好地预测我国社区卫生服务未来发展变化趋势。通过预测可知未来社区卫生服务将发挥更重要的作用,应通过紧密医联体建设与服务标准的完善将医疗资源更多投入到基层,提升卫生人员诊疗质量与待遇水平,转变居民就医观念,实现社区卫生服务的高质量发展。

Objective To predict the development of community health services in China from 2020 to 2025 and to evaluate and predict the planning and implementation of community health services,thus providing a scientific basis for policy making in health authorities.Methods The gray GM(1,1)model was applied to model and predict the data related to community health services in China from 2020 to 2025.Results The number of visits to community health service centers in China will increase year by year to 904 million in 2020-2025,the bed utilization rate will decrease to 52.0%,the number of health care workers will increase to 614,000,and the average daily patient visits to a physician will increase to 18.3.Conclusion The GM(1,1)model is a good tool for predicting the trends of community health services in China.It is predicted that community health services will play an increasingly important role in the coming years.More medical resources should be allocated in the grassroots medical institutions by establishing close medical alliances and improving service standards.More efforts should be made to improve the quality of medical services,increase employee motivation,change the residents’health care-seeking behavior,and thus achieve the high-quality development of community health services.