株洲市近59 a降水变化规律分析

Analysis on the Variation Law of Precipitation in Zhuzhou City in Recent 59 Years

为了解株洲市年降水变化规律,运用滑动平均值法、距平分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验、t检验及小波分析等方法,研究株洲市1954—2012年的年降水量变化特征。研究表明:①株洲市在59 a时段内降水量总体呈增加趋势,每10 a增加27.3 mm,降水量在2002年达到最高,在1954年达到最低;②株洲市干旱年为24 a,湿润年24 a,平水年为11 a;③59 a系列降水发生突变时间为2002年;④降水量存在3个比较明显的主周期,分别为20、10、5 a,这3个周期的波动控制着年降水量在整个研究的59 a内的变化特征。

To comprehend the regularity of annual precipitation variation in Zhuzhou City,the sliding average method,anomaly analysis method,Mann-Kendall mutation test,t test and wavelet analysis are applied to study the characteristics of annual precipitation variation in Zhuzhou City from 1954 to 2012.The result shows that,first,in the 59-year period of Zhuzhou City,the precipitation generally showed an increasing trend by 27.3mm every ten years.The precipitation reached the highest in 2002 and the lowest in 1954.Second,Zhuzhou City has a dry year of 24 years,a wet year of 24 years,and a flat year of 11 years.Third,the sudden variation of the 59-year series of precipitation occurred in 2002.Fourth,there are three obvious main periods of precipitation,which are 20,10,and 5 years respectively.The fluctuations of these three periods control the variation characteristics of annual precipitation over the entire 59 years of the study.