央地财政关系调整与宏观经济波动

Adjustment of the Local-central Fiscal Relationship and Macroeconomic Fluctuation

本文以《全面推开营改增试点后调整中央与地方增值税收入划分过渡方案》实施后地方财力的变化为背景,通过构建一个包含两个区域的确定性动态一般均衡模型研究了中央和地方政府间税收分成比例调整的经济效应及福利效应。研究发现:提高地方政府的税收分成比例能够增加两个地区的税收收入,且东部地区的增加幅度要高于中西部地区;同时地方分成比例的提高对产出和消费也有正向促进作用,但会挤出企业投资和降低居民的福利水平。福利反事实模拟还显示:居民对地方政府支出的偏好程度越高,地方政府税收分成比例的提高就越能够改善居民福利。本文的研究结果表明,政府在进行税收分成比例调整时应当充分考虑居民偏好,协同推进事权和支出责任划分、地方税建设以及转移支付制度的联动改革。

With changes in local finance after the implementation of“The Adjustment Plan of the VAT Revenue between Central and Local Governments after the Comprehensive Implementation of the Pilot Project to Replace Business Tax with VAT”,this paper studies the economic and welfare effects of the adjustment of tax sharing ratio between the central and local governments by constructing a deterministic dynamic general equilibrium model which includes two regions.The results of the study are as follows.Increasing the tax sharing of local governments can increase the tax revenue of the two regions,and the increase in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western region.It also has a positive effect on both the output and the consumption,while crowding out the business investment and reducing the welfare level of residents.Welfare s counterfactual analysis futher indicates that the higher the residents'preference for local government expenditure is,the more the growth in the proportion of local government tax sharing will be to improve residents'welfare.The results of this paper imply that when adjusting the tax sharing ratio,the government should take residents'preference into full account and promote the coordinated reform of administrative duty and expenditure responsibility,local tax construction and transfer payment system.