“煤改气、电”政策的空气污染治理效应研究

A Study on Air Pollution Governance Effect of the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”Policy

本文利用城市的日度数据,分析集中供暖、“煤改气、电”政策对空气污染的影响效应,以验证“煤改气、电”政策的有效性。研究结果表明,集中供暖显著增加供暖期的空气污染,但“煤改气、电”政策实施后有效降低空气污染,对补贴程度越高的城市、平均空气污染为优和轻度污染的城市及省会城市的空气污染降低效应更强。为此,应持续推进“煤改气、电”政策,慎重推进“一刀切”的“煤改气、电”退坡补贴政策,建立因城施策、补贴持续、重点区域重点改造的“煤改气、电”优化政策。

The polic-y of“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”is an important polic-y to deal with the haze pollution in the north of China in winter.From a theoretical point of view,the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”policy can significantly reduce the air pollution in the northern region during the heating period.However,in practice,due to the lag in“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”,there is a market failure problem with the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”policy.To this end,this article use the city's daily data to analyze the effect of the central heating and the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”policy on air pollution,so as to verify the effectiveness of the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”policy.The results show that the central heating has significantly increased the air pollution during the heating period,but the implementation of the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”polic-y has effectively reduced the air pollution,and it provides higher subsidies for cities with higher average air pollution and cities with light pollution,and the air pollution reduction effect is stronger for cities with higher subsidies,cities with superior average air pollution and light pollution,and provincial capital cities.In view of this,we should continue to promote the“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”policy,cautiously carry out the“one-size-fits-all”of“Coal-to-Gas/Electricity”subsidy polic-y for clean heating,and establish a “Coalto-Gas/Electricity”optimization policy with continued subsidies,considering the conditions in different cities and focusing on the transformation of key areas.