工业废气排放对涉农贷款有溢出效应吗?

Does Industrial Exhaust Emissions Have Spillover Effect on Agricultural Loans?

本文首先将工业废气排放量引入代表性工业企业的利润函数,依据Opiela的模型构建代表性金融机构的目标函数和约束条件,基于代表性金融机构的最优决策,得出工业废气排放量与涉农贷款之间的函数关系,继而提出研究假说。然后,基于2009—2018年中国31个省市区(因数据缺失,不包括港澳台地区)平衡面板数据检验研究假说,以研究工业废气排放量与涉农贷款比重之间的关系问题。研究结果表明,工业废气排放量与涉农贷款比重之间为正"U"型非线性关系,随着工业废气排放量的增加,涉农贷款比重先下降后上升。在拐点左侧,减少废气排放量的同时可提升涉农贷款比重,两者之间为"兼容"关系。相反,在拐点右侧,减少废气排放量将降低涉农贷款比重,两者之间为"互斥"关系。进一步研究发现,金融分权和数字基础设施水平还通过大气污染的部分中介效应,间接影响涉农贷款比重。最后,基于研究结论提出了政策启示。

The industrial exhaust emissions are introduced into the profit function of representative industrial enterprises,constructs the objective function and constraints of representative financial institutions based on the model of opiela,obtains the functional relationship between industrial exhaust emissions and agricultural loans based on the optimal decision of representative financial institutions,and then puts forward the research hypothesis.Then,based on the balance panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2018,the hypothesis is tested to study the relationship between industrial exhaust emissions and the proportion of agricultural loans.The results show as follows.There is apositive“U”nonlinear relationship between the industrial exhaust emissions and the proportion of agricultural loans.With the increase of industrial exhaust emissions,the proportion of agricultural loans first decreases and then increases.On the left side of the inflection point,while reducing exhaust emissions,the proportion of agricultural loans can be increased,which is a“compatible”relationship.On the contrary,on the right side of the inflection point,reducing exhaust emissions will reduce the proportion of agricultural loans,which is a“mutually exclusive”relationship.Further research found that financial decentralization and digital infrastructure level also indirectly affect the proportion of agricultural loans through some intermediary effects of industrial exhaust emissions.Finally,based on the conclusion of the study,policy implications are proposed.