中国城镇化进程概述和未来城镇化水平预测

An Overview of China’s Urbanization Policies over the Years and Forecast of Future Urbanization Levels

整理中国从1949—2015年的城镇化率数据,应用诺瑟姆曲线和时间序列法相结合的方式进行计算分析。结果显示:中国的城镇化率将以每年大约1个百分点的速度上升,在2030年达到70%左右。研究了中国从改革开放前一直到21世纪,不同时期有关城镇化发展的不同政策,随着中国城镇化的发展,相关的政策也在进行不断地调整和完善。结合城镇化率的计算结果和相关政策梳理,对中国城镇化道路的发展提出了建议。

Based on the intuitive expression of“northam curve”and relevant data analysis,this paper estimated that China’s urbanization rate will be promoted at the rate of about 1 percentage point per year,and reach about 70%in 2030.It also studied China’s policies on urbanization development in different periods from before the reform and opening up to the 21st century.With the development of China’s urbanization,relevant policies were being adjusted and improved continuously.Finally,four Suggestions were put forward for the development of China’s urbanization road.