城市灾难事件网络舆情的传播结构及情绪分析

Dissemination Structure and Emotional Analysis of Online Public Opinion in Urban Disaster Events

文章采用复杂网络与社会网络分析方法,研究城市灾难事件网络舆情的传播结构特征,并利用机器学习分析舆论情绪变化。研究发现,城市灾难事件网络舆情传播具有生命曲线特征,潜伏期和爆发期短,以多级路径为主,传播速度快、范围广。政府、媒体和意见领袖是舆情传播网络中的关键节点,三者的舆论情绪及变化存在差异,易产生次生舆情。研究表明,新媒体背景下信息多元且透明,伴随了公众理性思考和公民社会进步。建议分阶段采取引导策略,分层级持续释放权威消息,消除信息死角。同时加强有害信息管控,有效应对并严惩网络谣言,维护城市灾难事件的网络舆论生态。

This paper studies both the dissemination structure characteristics of urban disaster online public opinion by utilizing complex networks and social network analysis methods,and the changes of public opinion mood by using machine learning.The research finds that the dissemination of urban disaster event has the characteristics of life curve,with short incubation period and the outbreak period,as well as wide and fast multi-level dissemination paths.Government,media and opinion leaders are the key nodes in the public opinion dissemination network,but differences exist among them in public opinion moods and changes,which are easy to produce secondary public opinion.The research reveals that information is diverse and transparent in the context of new media,accompanied by rational thinking of the public and progress of civil society.The research puts forward some recommendations:adopting corresponding guidance strategy in stages,releasing authoritative messages continuously at a hierarchical level,and eliminating information blind spots.Moreover,it is necessary to strengthen the control of harmful information,respond effectively to the online rumors and severely punish rumor disseminators,and to maintain the online public opinion ecology of urban disasters.