基于灰色理论的出生人口预测及影响因素研究——以安徽省为例

A Newborn Population Forecast and a Research on Its Influencing Factors Based on Grey System Theory——A Case Study of Anhui Province

为提高人口生育率、减缓老龄化进程,以安徽省为例,梳理2012-2018年新生人口数据,应用灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1),对未来10年(2019-2028年)人口增长趋势进行预测,并采用灰色关联度分析法,对出生人口数量影响因素进行分析。研究表明:安徽省出生人口数量将持续稳定增长,但增速缓慢;恩格尔系数(农村)和城镇化率与出生人口数量的关联度最大;现行的“全面二孩”政策只能在短期内增加新生人口数量,并不能优化安徽省的人口年龄结构和减缓人口老龄化趋势。因此,应从城镇化发展、社会保障和人口素质3个方面优化人口结构,为政府提高生育率、减缓老龄化进程提供政策性指导。

To increase fertility rate and slow down the process of population aging,taking Anhui Province as an example,we tease out its data of newborn population from 2012 to 2018,and by applying grey system forecast model GM(1,1)we predict the population growth trend of Anhui Province in the next 10 years(2019-2028).Also,by using grey relational analysis,we analyze the influencing factors of the number of newborn population.The results show that Anhui s number of newborn population will grow steadily and continuously,but the growth will be slow;that Engel s coefficient(rural)and urbanization rate have the greatest correlation with the number of newborn population;that current“universal two-child”policy can only increase the number of newborns in short term and cannot optimize the age structure of Anhui Province or slow down the population aging trend.Therefore,population structure should be optimized from the three aspects of urbanization development,social security and population quality and policy guidance should be provided for the governments of Anhui and other regions on increasing fertility rate and slowing down population aging process.