2020年我国天然气供需形势分析及前景展望

Analysis of China s natural gas supply and demand situation in 2020 and future prospect

我国已形成国内生产、管道进口、LNG进口等天然气多元化供应格局。2020年,我国天然气产量1869亿m 3,进口量1403亿m 3,表观消费量3221亿m 3,供需基本平衡,对外依存度42.0%。本文通过梳理我国天然气供需现状,分析影响我国天然气供给和需求的因素,判断天然气消费量和产量仍将保持较快增长态势,预计2035年我国天然气消费量6000亿~6500亿m 3,天然气产量3000亿~3500亿m 3。分析2035年我国天然气供给潜力,未来国内天然气产量仍主要来自鄂尔多斯盆地、四川盆地、塔里木盆地等陆上含油气大盆地和海域,进口天然气仍主要来自“一带一路”沿线国家。为保障我国天然气供应,从三个方面提出政策建议:一是立足国内主要含油气大盆地,大力提升国内天然气勘探开发力度;二是持续深化油气勘查开采体制改革;三是坚持开放包容、互利共赢,高质量推进“一带一路”国际能源合作。

China has formed a diversified supply pattern of natural gas,including domestic production,pipeline import and LNG import.In 2020,China s natural gas production was 186.9 billion cubic meters,import was 140.3 billion cubic meters,and apparent consumption was 322.1 billion cubic meters.Supply and demand are basic balance.External dependence on natural gas reached 42.0%.Through sorting out the current situation of China s natural gas supply and demand,and analyzing the factors which influence the supply and demand of natural gas in China,this paper judges that the consumption and production of natural gas will still maintain a rapid growth trend.It s estimated that in 2035,China s natural gas will consume 600 billion to 650 billion cubic meters and produce 300 billion to 350 billion cubic meters.Analyze China s natural gas supply potential in 2035,domestic natural gas production will still mainly come from Ordos basin,Sichuan basin and Tarim basin in the future.Imported natural gas will still mainly come from countries along the“Belt and Road”.In order to guarantee the supply of natural gas in China,the policy suggestions are put forward from three aspects.Firstly,based on the major domestic oil and gas basins,our country needs to vigorously enhance the exploration and development of domestic natural gas.Secondly,we will continue to deepen the exploration and exploitation system reform of oil and gas.Thirdly,we pursue openness and inclusiveness,create a win-win situation,and promote high-quality international energy cooperation of the“Belt and Road”.