中国废钢资源化利用趋势:2020—2035年分析预测

Scrap steel resource utilization trend in China:analysis and forecast from 2020 to 2035

随着中国钢铁工业的转型发展,废钢合理利用已经成为实现钢铁产业改造升级与绿色发展的关键一环。合理分析预测中国废钢未来利用水平及趋势对于支撑研究钢铁行业高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于中国废钢利用的历史数据和现状数据,参照发达国家的废钢回收经验和中国的产业政策,利用趋势外推法和钢铁产品生命周期法对中国2020—2035年废钢利用量、利用水平和利用趋势进行分析,并整合两种方法结果进行综合预测。预测结果显示:2020—2035年中国废钢的利用量呈现不断上升的趋势,2035年左右废钢比将提升至40%左右,达到世界平均水平,2025年、2030年和2035年三个时点中国废钢的利用量分别为31800万t、38000万t和42000万t。据此,为了进一步提升废钢的资源化利用水平,提出了渐进式提高废钢比,提升电炉钢比例;加强市场监管,完善废钢回收利用和加工体系;推动废钢“降成本”,推出废钢期货,鼓励企业多炼废钢等建议。

With the transformation and development of China s iron and steel industry,the rational utilization of scrap steel has become a key part of the transformation and upgrading of the iron and steel industry and green development.Reasonable analysis and prediction of the future utilization level and utilization trend of China s scrap steel are of great significance for supporting research on the high-quality development of the steel industry.Based on the historical and current data of China s scrap utilization,this article refers to the scrap recycling experience of developed countries and China s industrial policies,and uses the trend extrapolation method and the steel product life cycle method to assess China s scrap utilization,utilization levels from 2020 to 2035 use trends for analysis,and integrate the results of the two methods for comprehensive analysis and forecasting.The forecast results show that China s scrap utilization will continue to increase from 2020 to 2035,and the scrap ratio will increase to about 40%around 2035,reaching the world average.China s scrap steel will be used in 2025,2030 and 2035.The utilization amount of the plant is 318 million tons,380 million tons and 420 million tons respectively.Accordingly,in order to further improve the level of utilization of scrap steel,it is proposed to gradually increase the ratio of scrap steel and increase the proportion of electric furnace steel;strengthen market supervision and improve the recycling and processing system of scrap steel;promote the“cost reduction”of scrap steel,launch scrap steel futures,and encourage suggestions for enterprises to make more scrap steel.