辽河流域水环境累积风险评估及关键指标筛选研究

Study on Cumulative Risk Assessment and Key Index Screening of Water Environment in Liao River Basin

为了分析辽河流域水环境累积风险现状,将世界自然基金会、德国投资与开发有限公司和美国国家环保局提出的累积性环境风险评估体系进行耦合,形成了新的累积风险综合指标评估体系;同时,结合层次分析法对指标值进行赋权。该评估体系包括物理风险、监管风险和声誉风险3个子系统,19个指标。应用该评估体系对辽河流域辽宁段水环境的累积风险现状进行分析和评价,结果表明:辽河流域辽宁段水环境累积风险等级为中高风险,评价结果与实际情况基本相符;物理风险对水环境累积风险的影响最大,其次是监管风险和声誉风险;水质及污水处理投资额是对水环境累积风险影响最大的两个指标。据此,提出了辽河流域辽宁段水环境的主要整改意见,即:加大对水体治理的力度,提高污水处理投资额,改善水质条件;建立良好的水环境保护机制,应对不可抗力的发生,以期降低水环境累积风险。

In order to analyze the current situation of water environment cumulative risk in Liao River basin,a new comprehensive index assessment system of cumulative risk is formed by coupling the cumulative environmental risk assessment system proposed by World Wide Fund for Nature or World Wildlife Fund(WWF),Deutsche Investitions-und Entwicklungsgesellschaft mbH(DEG)and US Environmental Protection Agency(USEPA).At the same time,the index value is weighted in combination with the analytic hierarchy process.The evaluation system includes three subsystems of physical risk,regulatory risk and reputation risk,with a total of 19 indicators.The assessment system is applied to analyze and evaluate the cumulative risk status of water environment in Liaoning section of Liao River basin.The results show that the cumulative risk level of water environment in Liaoning section of Liao River basin is medium high,and the assessment results are basically consistent with the actual situation.Physical risks have the greatest impact on the cumulative risks of the water environment,followed by regulatory risks and reputation risks.Water quality and sewage treatment investment are the two indicators that have the greatest impact on the cumulative risk of the water environment.Based on this,the main rectification opinions on the water environment of the Liaoning section of the Liao River basin are proposed.Firstly,it is necessary to increase the intensity of water treatment,increase investment in sewage treatment,and improve water quality conditions.Secondly,a good water environmental protection mechanism should be established to deal with the occurrence of force majeure,in order to reduce the cumulative risk of the water environment.