基于模糊化事故等级指标的调度风险评价方法

A dispatch risk assessment method based on fuzzification accident rating index

为整合不同的后果严重度的指标,充分反映调度员在调度全过程中规避高等级电力事故的意图,提出一种基于模糊化事故等级指标的调度全过程风险评价方法。首先给出了考虑调度全过程的事故后果严重度评价指标体系,然后,基于南方电网电力事故等级划分标准,提出了电力事故等级指标的模糊化定级和量化方法。接着,提出了设备和开关操作故障的模糊化概率建模策略。最后,提出了考虑调度操作全过程的风险评估技术流程。深圳电网的实际算例表明,所提风险评估方法可以有效量化电网运行和调度开关操作中的风险,从而明确判断本次调度操作是否具有实际价值。

In order to integrate different severity indicators of the consequences,and fully reflect the intention of the dispatcher to avoid high-level electrical accidents during the whole process of dispatching,this paper proposes a whole process risk assessment method based on fuzzy accident level indicators.First,an accident severity evaluation index system of the whole process of dispatching is considered.Then,based on the classification standard of power accident level of the China Southern Power Grid,a fuzzy grading and quantification method of electric power accident grade index and a fuzzy probabilistic modeling strategy of equipment and switch operation faults is proposed.Finally,a technical process of the risk assessment that considers the whole process of dispatching operations is proposed.The practical example of Shenzhen Power Grid shows that the risk assessment method proposed in this paper can effectively quantify the risk in grid operation and dispatching switch operation,so as to clearly determine the practical value of the dispatching operation.