环境温度暴露对急救呼叫的影响--基于许昌市和郑州市数据的时间序列分析

The impact of ambient temperature exposure on emergency calls-a time series analysis based on data of Xuchang and Zhengzhou

目的:探讨逐小时环境温度暴露对许昌和郑州市急救呼叫次数的影响。方法:收集许昌、郑州市2017年1月1日-2019年10月31日的逐小时气象资料、空气污染资料和急救呼叫数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型计算超额危险度( ERR),评估极端温度暴露对急救呼叫的滞后效应和累积效应。 结果:逐小时温度暴露与急救呼叫次数呈“U”型关联。在许昌市和郑州市,低温和高温均会增加每小时急救呼叫次数。低温的最早影响出现在滞后22和52 h, ERR(95% CI)值分别为0.20%(0.00%,0.39%)和0.11%(0.00%,0.22%);高温的最早影响均出现在滞后0 h, ERR(95% CI)值分别为1.59%(1.09%,2.09%)和1.45%(1.22%,1.69%)。高温在滞后4~8 h对心血管疾病的急救呼叫次数影响最大,许昌市、郑州市的累积 ERR值(95% CI)分别为8.70%(4.98%,12.75%)和3.89%(2.61%,5.22%)。 结论:高温暴露可在数小时内增加急救呼叫次数,而低温的影响在22 h后才会出现。

Objective To investigate the effect of hourly ambient temperature exposure on emergency calls in Xuchang city and Zhengzhou city.Methods The hourly meteorological data,air pollution data and emergency calls of Xuchang city and Zhengzhou city were collected from January 1,2017 to October 31,2019.A distributed lag non-linear model was used to calculate the excess relative risk(ERR).The lag effect and cumulative effect of extreme temperature exposure on emergency calls were evaluated.Results The relationship between hourly temperature exposure and emergency calls was a U-shaped curve.In Xuchang city and Zhengzhou city,both low and high temperatures would increase the number of hourly emergency calls.The earliest effect of low temperature occurred at a lag of 22 h and 52 h,with ERR values(95%CI)about 0.20%(0.00%,0.39%)and 0.11%(0.00%,0.22%),respectively.The earliest effect of high temperature occurred at a lag of 0 h with ERR values about 1.59%(1.09%,2.09%)and 1.45%(1.22%,1.69%),respectively.High temperature had the greatest impact on the number of emergency calls of cardiovascular disease at a lag of 4-8 h.The cumulative ERR values(95%CI)of the two cities were 8.70%(4.98%,12.75%)and 3.89%(2.61%,5.22%),respectively.Conclusion High temperature exposure could increase the number of emergency calls within a few hours,while the effect of low temperature would not occur until 22 hours later.