农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响:基于倾向值匹配的异质性研究

Effect from Exclusion of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers’Income in China:a Heterogeneity Analysis Based on PSM Method

我国存在较严重的农业保险排斥,对农民收入产生了一定影响。采用2015-2016年北方6省12县种植业保险的调研数据,利用倾向得分匹配法纠正可能存在的样本选择性偏误,系统考察了农业保险排斥对农民收入的影响。实证结果表明:农业保险排斥对农民收入有显著负向影响,受排斥农户与未受排斥农户的农业收入差异为6%左右。考虑异质性后的结果进一步表明,未受排斥的年轻农户和规模扩大型农户农业收入增长明显。此外,相较于高受灾农户,未受排斥的低受灾农户因为受灾和补偿概率较低,农业保费成为农业额外成本从而降低了收入。提出应持续推进政策性农业保险"提标、扩面、增品",降低农村农业保险排斥,充分发挥农业保险在防风险、稳收入中的作用。

There is a serious agricultural insurance exclusion in China,which has a certain impact on farmers’income.Based on crop insurance data from twelve counties of six northern provinces in 2015-2016,we adopted the Propensity Score Matching method to correct the possible sample selectivity bias and systematically examine the impact of agricultural insurance exclusion on farmers’income.Empirical result shows that agricultural insurance exclusion has a significant negative impact on farmers’income,and the difference in agricultural income between excluded farmers and non-excluded farmers is 6%.The results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that the increase of agricultural income of non-excluded young farmers and expanded non-excluded farmers is significant.In addition,compared with the farmers with higher risk of disaster,low affected farmers who are not excluded have a low probability of being affected and getting compensation.So agricultural premiums become additional agricultural costs and reduce their income.Therefore,the government should promote policy-based agricultural insurance by increasing compensation level,expanding scope and designing more insurance plans.By reducing the exclusion,agricultural insurance would play more significant role in promoting income of farmers.