西北地区新型冠状病毒肺炎流行病学特征及成因分析

Epidemiological features and causation of COVID-19 in Northwest China

目的对西北地区新型冠状病毒肺炎(新冠肺炎)确诊病例进行流行病学特征分析及成因讨论,为后续疫情防控工作的开展提供依据。方法通过各省(自治区)卫生健康委员会官方网站收集2020年1月23日至2020年3月17日西北地区(陕西、甘肃、宁夏、青海、新疆)新冠肺炎确诊病例信息,对病例的时空分布特征、年龄性别特征进行统计描述与分析。结果西北地区累计报告新冠肺炎确诊病例548例,累计发病率为0.53/10万人,治愈率为97.4%,病死率为1.5%。疫情发展经历了输入扩散期、快速增长期、稳定期、下降期、境外输入期5个阶段。在地域上呈现省会(首府)及其周围地区高发的特点。确诊患者男女比为1.11∶1,20~60岁年龄组患者占比最高,患者早期以湖北输入性病例为主,中后期转为本地社区传播。患者平均就诊时间为(2.6±3.2)d,平均确诊时间为(4.8±3.1)d,集中隔离平均确诊时间为(6.1±4.0)d。结论明确了西北地区新冠肺炎确诊病例的基本情况、性别及年龄比例、就诊行为等特征,提示防控政策颇具成效且疫情已基本得到控制。这为日后动态调整防控措施提供了依据。

Objective To describe the epidemiological features of COVID-19 confirmed cases in Northwest China and discuss the causation of these features in order to provide reference for taking preventive measures in the future. Methods We collected the data of all confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 23, 2020 to March 17, 2020 released on the official website of the Health Commission of Northwest China(Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang). We analyzed the characteristics in time and space distribution, age and gender. Results Totally 548 cases of COVID-19 were reported in Northwest China. The cumulative incidence rate was 0.53 per 100 000 people. The curative rate was 97.4% and the case fatality rate was 1.5%. Capital cities of each province had a higher incidence rate than that of other regions. The proportion of local transmission increased with time. The male-to-female ratio in the confirmed cases was 1.11∶1. Most patients were aged 20 to 60 years old. At the early stage most cases were imported from Hubei Province and later the pattern became local transmission. The average time interval between disease onset and hospital visit was(2.6±3.2)d. The average time interval between hospital visit and case confirmation was(4.8±3.1)d. The average time interval between centralized isolation and case confirmation was(6.1±4.0)d. Conclusion The epidemiological features of COVID-19 cases, including the basic situation, gender and age distribution and patient behaviors, were reviewed and analyzed. COVID-19 was well controlled in Northwest China, which indicates that the current preventive measures were effective. They will provide reference for future prevention.