“后新冠时期”妇幼卫生服务工作的思考——云南昆明数据分析

Thoughts on the maternal and child health service in the“Post-COVID-19 Period”——data analysis of Kunming,Yunnan

目的分析昆明市2020年第1~2季度妇幼卫生服务工作主要指标,构建时间序列模型预测2020年1~4季度昆明市妇幼卫生服务工作情况。方法采用描述性流行病学方法综合分析2020年第1~2季度妇幼卫生服务工作开展情况,以2014年第1季度至2019年第4季度的数据为建模数据,采用SPSS 25.0软件建立指数平滑模型和差分整合移动平均自回归(ARIMA)模型,筛选最佳模型并预测2020年1~4季度的数据。结果2020年第1季度妇幼卫生服务工作各项指标总和105640人次、预测值为159577人次,环比增长率-36.37%,同比增长率-13.48%;2020年第2季度指标总和119538次、预测值为158835人次,环比增长率13.16%,同比增长率-12.36%。其中第1季度产妇产前检查、产妇产后访视、户籍活产、新生儿访视人数的实际值低于预测值的规范下限。2020年3~4季度妇幼卫生服务工作各项指标总和预测值为323211人次,高于2019年同期。结论受新冠肺炎疫情影响,2020年第1~2季度妇幼卫生工作服务人数低于预测值,有大量的服务需求并未得到满足。在后新冠时期,助产机构可能会出现患者更多、医务人员工作量更大的现象,需要提高重视,积极应对,优化工作流程,确保医患安全。

Objective To analyze the main indicators of maternal and child health services of Kunming in the 1-2 quarter of 2020,and then built a time series model to predict the maternal and child health service of Kunming in the 1-4 quarter of 2020.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the development of maternal and child health services in 1-2 quarter of 2020.The data from the first quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2019 was used for modeling.SPSS 25.0 software was used to establish exponential smoothing model and autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA)model.The best model was screened and the data in the 1-4 quarter of 2020 was predicted.Results In the first quarter of 2020,the total number of maternal and child health services was 105640,the predicted value was 159577,month-on-month growth was-36.37%,and year-on-year growth rate was-13.48%.In the second quarter of 2020,the total number was 119538,the predicted value was 158835,month-on-month growth rate was 13.16%,and year-on-year growth rate was-12.36%.In the first quarter,the number of prenatal examinations,postpartum visits,live births of local household registration,newborn visits were lower than the lower limit of the predicted threshold.In the 3-4 quarter of 2020,the predictive value of maternal and child health service indicators was 323211 person-times,which was higher than that in 2019.Conclusion Because of COVID-19,the number of maternal and child health services was lower than the predicted value in the 1-2 quarter of 2020.A large number of service needs were not been met.In the post-COVID-19 period,more patients and more workload of medical staff may appear in midwifery institutions.They need to pay more attention,requires a positive response,optimize workflow,and ensure the safety of doctors and patients.