人口老龄化、养老保险基金缺口弥补与经济增长

Population Ageing,Pension Fund Gap Compensation and Economic Growth

本文构建一个包含财政支出和公共债务的世代交叠模型,以养老保险基金缺口弥补为核心内容,考察人口老龄化对经济增长的影响,并探讨采用何种基金缺口弥补方式更有利于促进经济增长。研究发现,若采用财政补贴方式弥补基金缺口,生存概率上升和生育率下降均提高经济增速;若采用发行公债方式或两者兼用方式弥补基金缺口,当人力资本产出弹性较小时相应结论不变,反之则经济增速随生存概率上升呈倒U型变化趋势,随生育率下降而提高。基金缺口弥补方式是影响经济增长的重要制度因素,人力资本产出弹性较小时发行公债方式下的经济增速最高,反之则为财政补贴方式。结合我国现实,本文认为政府应探索包括发行公债在内的多种基金缺口弥补方式以更好地应对人口老龄化,实现经济长期较快增长。

With the continuous deepening of the population ageing in China in recent years,the shortage of the Employees'Basic Pension Fund has become increasingly severe and the downward pressure on economic growth has become more significant.The“system concept”put forward by the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China calls for the strengthen of overall planning.As stable and rapid economic growth is essential for pension system's sustainable operation,it is important to discuss about the pension fund gap issue under the framework of economic growth.This paper constructs an overlapping generations model that includes fiscal expenditure and public debt to examine the impact of population ageing on economic growth,and compares the methods of pension fund gap compensation in promoting economic growth.Our analyses reveal that:(i)if fiscal subsidies are used to compensate for the pension fund gap,both the raised survival probability and the declined fertility will increase economic growth;(ii)if public debts or a combination of fiscal subsidies and public debts are used to compensate for the pension fund gap,the above conclusion holds when the output elasticity of human capital is small,but the effect of the raised survival probability on economic growth follows an inverted U-shape pattern and the effect of the declined fertility on economic growth is positive when the elasticity is large;(iii)the way to compensate for the pension fund gap is an essential institutional factor for economic growth.This paper has three main contributions.First,in terms of research ideas,this paper uses the pension fund gap as the breakthrough point to achieve an organic combination of population ageing,pension fund gap compensation methods,and economic growth,and clarifies the influencing mechanism of population ageing and pension fund gap compensation methods on economic growth.Second,in terms of model construction,this paper comprehensively considers the substitution effect of the compensation for pension fund gap on productive public expenditures and private material capital,and discusses several core issues of the overlapping generations model,such as the stability,dynamic effectiveness,and debt sustainability of the economic equilibrium.Third,in terms of research conclusions,this paper depicts the evolution characteristics of population ageing and economic growth under different pension fund gap compensation methods,and puts forward methods that are most conducive to promoting economic growth under different conditions.Based on the above conclusions,this paper draws three policy implications.First,at the conceptual level,it should be recognized that population ageing is an issue with both challenges and opportunities,which needs to be addressed with a positive attitude.Second,at the institutional level,the institutional exploration and policy reserve of pension fund gap compensation methods should be done well under the guidance of the“system concept”and in combination with the specific national conditions.Considering that the leading force of China's economic growth is still the material capital,and the output elasticity of the human capital is relatively small,exploring ways to compensate for the pension fund gap,including issuing public debts,will better optimize the long-term development path of the economy and society,and realize a good interaction between the pension system and economic growth.Third,at the technical level,the combination of policy tools to compensate for the pension fund gap should be determined dynamically based on quantification to improve the efficiency of national governance.In particular,the government should adopt more active debt management policies when issuing public debts to avoid the decline in economic stability caused by the expansion of debt scale,so as to achieve steady and rapid economic growth.This paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework of the relationship between population ageing,pension fund gap compensation methods,and economic growth.Future research can be expanded from at least two aspects.First,considering that children's support is still an essential part of old-age support in China,the mechanism of“raising children for old-age support”can be introduced in future studies to better depict the motivation of individuals to invest in human capital.Second,the expansion of the debt scale weakens economic stability,which puts forward higher requirements for the debt management ability of the government.How to regulate the debt scale to achieve a smooth transition of the economy between different equilibriums is a key issue to be solved urgently.