基于节水视角的中国水资源压力时空演变及影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal Variation of Water Resources Stress and Its Influencing Factors Based on Water-saving in China

基于水资源节约视角,采用区域水资源规划消耗量占该地区水资源可利用量的比重来测算水资源压力指数,运用趋势分析、探索性数据分析(ESDA)方法对2005—2017年中国31个省市水资源压力指数空间格局演化特征与空间相关性进行分析,并选取8个相关变量,采用地理探测器探究影响水资源压力指数空间分异的因素,结论如下:①研究期内,部分省份水资源压力指数呈上升趋势,环渤海、长江下游和黄河下游等水资源压力较高地区具有较大的节水潜力;水资源压力空间分布不均,东西方的区域差异大于南北方。②水资源压力指数具有明显的空间集聚性,且集聚现象不断加强,水资源压力高高集聚和低低集聚地区空间分布较为稳定。③2005—2017年,影响全国水资源压力空间分异最主要的因素是万元GDP用水量与万元工业增加值用水量;东部地区水资源压力主要由人口数量、生活用水量、牲畜数量和万元工业增加值用水量决定;中、西部经济欠发达地区主要受万元GDP用水量与COD排放量的影响。

Based on the perspective of water-saving,water stress was defined as the ratio of the planned consumption of water resources to available water resources.This article estimated the water resources stress index of 31 provinces from 2005 to 2017,the ESDA(Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis)model was applied to study the spatial changing characteristic and correlation pattern of water resources stress index,the results showed that:1)During the study period,the water resources stress index had a rising tendency in general,in the Bohai bay area,water resources stress index was high.Bohai Rim,the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River had great water-saving potential;water resources stress was unevenly distributed in space.The difference of values from west to east were more than that of values from south to north.2)The water resource stress index had obviously spatial agglomeration,and the agglomeration phenomenon showed a trend of strengthening.The spatial distribution of water resource stress index in high agglomeration areas and low agglomeration areas were relatively stable.3)From 2005 to 2017,the main factors influencing the spatial distribution of water resource stress index across the country were water consumption per 10000 GDP and water consumption of ten thousand yuan industrial added value.The spatial differentiation in eastern China was mainly determined by the population,domestic water consumption,livestock quantity and water consumption of ten thousand yuan industrial added value.The less developed areas in the central and western regions were mainly determined by the water consumption per 10000 GDP and COD emissions.