计算人口学的学科范式、理论基础与技术方法

Paradigm,Theories and Methods of Computational Demography

阐释了计算人口学的学科范式、理论基础和技术方法。计算人口学作为研究人的行为的数字化和计算机化的学科,既是计算社会科学的基础,也是开展计算社会科学研究的钥匙和抓手。与传统人口学的学科范式相比,计算人口学的学科范式有五个方面的特征:由轮廓式人口统计(profiling demography)向全景式人口统计(Panoramic demography)转变;将弥合规范人口学(formal demography)和人口研究(population studies)的鸿沟,促进人口研究更加整合和规范;将引发人口研究方法的变革,由假想队列法(hypothesis cohort analysis)向拓展队列法(extended cohort analysis)转变;人口的内涵不再局限在人类人口,而向数字人口和智能人口拓展;由偏重群体统计的宏观人口学(macrodemography)向更加注重个体统计的微观人口学(microdemography)转变。第三次人口转变理论、主体性理论和天人合一理论是计算人口学的理论基石,拓展队列法、在线调查和实验、在线谱系学、主体建模技术是计算人口学的主要技术方法。作为新兴科学,计算人口学面临的机遇和挑战并存,需要加强跨学科和产学研协作,加强数据基础设施和研究规范建设,丰富应用场景,关注其对个人安全、隐私保护、道德伦理等方面的影响。

As a science of digitalizing and computerizing human behavior,computational demography is not only the basis of computational social science,but also the key and grasp of computational social science.The disciplinary paradigm of computational demography has five characteristics:it will transform from the profiling demography to the panoramic demography;it will bridge the formal demography and population research;it will lead to the change of population research methods from the hypothetical cohort analysis to the extended cohort analysis;it will expand the connotation of population from human population to digital population and intelligent population;it will transform from the macro-demography which emphasizes group statistics to micro-demography which pays more attention to individual statistics.The third demographic transition theory,subjectivity theory and the theory of the unity of man and nature have become the theoretical basis of computational demography.The main technical methods of computational demography are extended cohort method,online survey and experiment,online genealogy and agent-based modeling.As an emerging science,computational demography faces both opportunities and challenges.It is necessary to strengthen interdisciplinary and industry-university-research cooperation,strengthen the construction of data infrastructure and research norms,enrich application scenarios,and pay attention to the impact of computational demography on personal security,privacy protection,ethics and other aspects.