公众对新冠肺炎疫情感知态度的影响因素研究——基于上海市民调查的挖掘分析

Research on the Influential Factors of Public Perception and Attitudes to the COVID-19:Based on the Citizen Survey of Shanghai

在新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情这一特殊时期,找到公众对此次疫情感知态度的影响因素,有利于完善防疫抗疫工作机制,降低疫情对公众生产生活的干扰,进而帮助政府出台更具针对性的政策。基于"新冠肺炎疫情上海应对问卷调查"结果,本文以公众对疫情的感知态度为目标变量,将职业和学历水平等12个变量作为解释变量,基于CART决策树以及XGBoost模型找出造成公众具有不同感知态度的重要变量,并基于模型效果综合考量重要变量的选取结果是否可靠,借助关联规则对受到此次疫情影响的市民进行分析,从而发现此类人群的特点。结果显示,个人收入的变化预期和年龄等变量为影响感知态度的主要因素,由此判断公众的心理预期情绪、共情伤害以及盲目乐观或过度悲观等问题是目前应该关注的重点,进一步发现深受此次疫情影响的市民普遍会花较长时间关注疫情信息造成较大的心理压力,同时还具备学历水平较高、身体素质良好等诸多特点,存在对事件发展风险性感知更敏锐的可能性。基于以上发现,本文提出可加强对失业高风险人群进行就业指导、充分利用新媒体宣传手段以及对部分人群进行恰当的心理干预等建议。

Finding the influential factors on the public perception and attitude towards the COVID-19 is conducive to improving the working mechanism for preventing and fighting the epidemic, reducing the interference of the epidemic on the production and life, and helping the government to introduce more targeted policies. Based on the survey results of the The Reaction of COVID-19 in Shanghai, this article took the public perception of the epidemic as the target variable, and used 12 variables such as occupation and education level as explanatory variables. Based on the CART and XGBoost model, we found out the important variables that cause the public to have different perceptions and attitudes, and re-evaluated whether the selected variables were reliable according to the model effect. With the help of association rules, the citizens affected by the COVID-19 were analyzed to identify the characteristics of this group. As the results showed, the expectation of income change as a result of the COVID-19, age and other variables were the main factors affecting perceived attitude. Therefore, judging the public’s psychological expectations, empathetic pain, and blind optimism or excessive pessimism are the key points that should be paid attention to at present. In addition, it is believed that people who think that the epidemic has an impact on life will generally spend a long time paying attention to the information of the epidemic, which will put too much pressure on themselves. They may have better education and be in good physical fitness, which means they may be more sensitive to the risk. Based on the findings above, this article comes up with some suggestions, such as strengthening employment guidance for the high-risk unemployed groups, making full use of new media publicity methods, and conducting appropriate psychological interventions on some specific groups.