近38年(1982-2019)雷州半岛近海气候变化分析

Analysis of Changes in Leizhou Peninsula’s Offshore Climate Over the Past 38 Years(1982−2019)

为科学保护雷州半岛近海海洋生态系统,为促进当地经济与海洋生态协调发展提供科学依据和理论指导。本文选取雷州半岛1982—2019年的气象资料,利用线性趋势和累积距平方法,分析了雷州半岛近38 a气温和降水的变化特征。结果表明:(1)雷州半岛年平均气温呈上升趋势,变化周期为2 a和3 a,且升温速率低于全国平均升温速率;(2)最高气温呈下降趋势,夏季气温上升减弱;最低气温呈上升趋势,暖冬现象明显;(3)年降雨量呈上升趋势,年际波动与年代际波动明显。季节分布不均匀,降水主要集中在夏、秋季节,冬季的平均降水量最少,且夏秋季降水呈增加趋势,而春冬季降水呈下降趋势,表明秋旱减缓而春旱冬旱加剧的变化趋势。

This study was carried out scientifically protect offshore marine ecosystems surrounding Leizhou Peninsula,and to provide a scientific basis and theoretical guidance for promoting the coordinated development of the local economy and marine ecology.Meteorological data of the Leizhou Peninsula from 1982 to 2019,were analysed using linear trend and cumulative anomaly methods to examine temperature and precipitation changes in this region over the past 38 years.The results showed that:(1)annual average temperatures showed a rising trend whilst the rate of warming over this period was lower than China’s national average rate of warming,the change period were 2 and 3 years;(2)the highest annual temperatures showed a downward trend while rises in mean summer temperatures showed a weakening trend and lowest temperatures showed a rising trend with an obvious tendency for increasingly warm winters;(3)annual rainfall showed an upward trend with obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal fluctuations.The seasonal distribution of precipitation over this period showed no clear patterns of change,with precipitation mainly concentrated in summer and autumn.Winter precipitation was lower than that of the other three seasons,and both summer and autumn precipitation showed an increasing trend whilst spring and winter precipitation showed downward trends.The latter trends indicate that the autumn drought is becoming less severe while there is an increased tendency for occurrence of drier spells during spring and winter.