基于实物期权的碳汇造林项目碳汇价值评估模型及应用

Assessment model on the value of China certified emission reduction issued by afforestation project for carbon sink based on real options and its application

【目的】从项目业主投资角度科学揭示造林碳汇项目碳汇价值的结构、水平及关键影响因子,为促进林业碳汇项目发展的市场机制设计与激励政策制定提供更全面的参考。【方法】基于实物期权理论,构建了碳汇造林项目碳汇价值评估模型,并以落叶松为例,应用该模型和各参数数据对碳汇造林项目碳汇价值进行了定量评估与数值模拟分析。【结果】1)在当前市场条件下,落叶松单位面积年均和20 a累计碳汇价值量为148.73元/hm^(2)和2974.55元/hm^(2),这一结果较贴现现金流法评估结果高79.11元/hm^(2)和1582.27元/hm^(2),这表明该模型较贴现现金流法更能体现碳汇所有者的权益;2)固碳减排强度、碳汇价格以及标的资产的当前价值变化对碳汇期权价值以及碳汇总价值均具有正向影响,而碳汇交易成本、无风险利率以及标的资产的执行价格变化对碳汇期权价值和碳汇总价值均具有一定的负向影响。【结论】为促进林业碳汇项目发展以发挥其在应对和适应气候变化中的作用,相关部门在构建和完善碳交易市场时,应该适时推进期权、期货交易,并尽快出台碳汇收益权的立法与保护、多措并举降低林业碳汇交易成本。此外,项目业主在关注碳汇造林技术的同时,还需要根据碳市场环境的变化适时采取灵活的投资开发策略。

【Objective】This study scientifically reveals the carbon sequestration value composition,level and key influencing factors of afforestation carbon sequestration projects under uncertain conditions from the perspective of project owner investment,so as to provide a more comprehensive reference for market mechanism design and incentive policy formulation to promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects.【Method】Therefore,starting from real option(RO)theory,this paper constructs a dynamic assessment model of carbon sink value of CCER project of carbon sequestration afforestation,and then the carbon sequestration value of the project issued by Larix gmelinii(Rupr.)Kuzen.was evaluated quantitatively and simulated numerically.【Result】1)under the current market conditions,the annual average and 20-year accumulative carbon sink value of Larix gmelinii(Rupr.)Kuzen.is 148.73 yuan/hm^(2) and 2974.55 yuan/hm^(2),which is 79.11 yuan/hm^(2) and 1582.27 yuan/hm^(2) higher than that of DCF assessment result.This shows that the model can better reflect the rights and interests of carbon sink resource owners than the DCF method;2)The changes of carbon sequestration,carbon sink price and the current value of underlying assets have a positive impact on the option value and aggregate value of carbon sink,while the changes of transaction cost,risk-free interest rate and execution price of underlying assets have a negative.【Conclusion】In order to promote the development of forestry carbon sequestration projects and the play their role in coping with and adapting to climate change,relevant departments should timely promote options and futures trading,introduce legislation and protection of carbon sequestration income right as soon as possible,and take comprehensive measures to reduce transaction costs.In addition,the owner of the project should not only pay attention to carbon sink afforestation technology,but also need to adopt flexible investment and development decision-making in time according to the changes of carbon market environment.