黄河中下游地区耕地轨迹演变及驱动机制研究——以河南省为例

Evolution and driving mechanisms of cultivated land trajectories in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River:A case study on the Henan Province

为探究黄河中下游地区耕地轨迹演变规律,以河南省沿黄地区和非沿黄地区为例,运用变化轨迹方法、景观格局指数和Logistic回归模型进行耕地轨迹演变及其驱动机制的对比分析。结果表明:沿黄地区耕地扩张和缩减幅度高于非沿黄地区,扩张型耕地在沿黄地区主要沿黄河两岸分布,非沿黄地区分布均匀。非沿黄地区缩减型耕地向各行政区的中心集聚,沿黄地区缩减型耕地明显向郑州集聚。耕地是河南省优势景观类型,沿黄地区扩张型耕地和缩减型耕地聚集程度和连通性高于非沿黄地区,但连通聚集增长率低于非沿黄地区。Logistic分析表明,沿黄地区与非沿黄地区的耕地轨迹转化驱动因素略有差异,沿黄地区耕地的扩张对黄河水的依赖性强,非沿黄地区受经济发展和社会生活的影响较大。缩减型耕地在沿黄地区和非沿黄地区的驱动因子基本一致,区别主要在于贡献率的不同。研究结果为保障国家粮食安全及黄河流域高质量发展提供理论依据。

To explore the evolution trajectories of cultivated land in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River(considering the areas along the Yellow River and areas located away from the Yellow River within the Henan Province as research areas),a comparative analysis of the evolution trajectories and their driving mechanisms was carried out using the change trajectory method,a landscape pattern index and a Logistic regression model.The results showed that the instances of expansion and shrinkage of cultivated land along the Yellow River were more frequent than those in the areas located away from the Yellow River.Reduced levels of cultivated land in areas located away from the Yellow River were typically found toward the centers of their respective administrative regions.Meanwhile,along the Yellow River,reduced levels of cultivated land tended to be concentrated in the Zhengzhou region.Cultivated land was the dominant landscape type in Henan Province.The expansion and shrinkage of the accumulation and connectivity of cultivated land in the areas along the Yellow River were higher than in the areas located away from the river;However,the growth rate of connected agglomeration was lower in the areas along the Yellow River.Logistic regression analysis showed that the driving factors of cultivated land trajectories in areas along the Yellow River were slightly different to those of areas located away from the river.The expansion of cultivated land in areas along the Yellow River was highly dependent on the water of the Yellow River,while the expansion of cultivated land in areas located away from the river was affected more by economic development and social life.These factors had different contributions to the shrinkage of cultivated land in two areas.This research provides a theoretical basis for ensuring national food security and responding to the high-quality development of areas surrounding the Yellow River.