辽宁省碳排放权跨区域交易影响因素分析

Analysis on influencing factors of interregional carbon emissions trading in Liaoning province

辽宁省作为碳排放大省,需要通过跨区域交易解决碳排放权缺口巨大的问题。利用灰色关联法从产业结构、居民消费、能源消耗、环境承载、经济效率等5个方面选择16个具体指标构建影响辽宁省碳排放跨区域交易的评价指标体系,对其影响因素进行定量分析。分析结果显示,辽宁省巨大的化石能源消耗量产生巨额的碳排放量,且辽宁省碳汇环境承载力较低,常年处于碳赤字状况,在未来一段时间内主要依靠跨地区购入碳排放权。辽宁省为了实现社会经济与环境保护的协调发展,在以跨区域交易为主的模式下,还应合理调整产业结构、降低居民家庭恩格尔系数、重视清洁能源利用、加强植树造林工程建设和提高经济效率。

Liaoning,as a province with high carbon emissions,needs to solve the problem of huge carbon emission rights gap through cross-regional transactions.Based on the grey correlation method,in this paper we construct the evaluation index system of cross-regional carbon emissions trading in Liaoning Province,including 16 specific indicators from five aspects:industrial structure,residents’consumption,energy consumption,environmental carrying capacity and economic efficiency,and quantitatively analyzes the influencing factors of cross-regional carbon emissions trading in Liaoning Province.The results show that the much fossil energy consumption of Liaoning Province produces huge carbon emissions,and the environmental carrying capacity of carbon sinks is low,which is in a carbon deficit all the year.In the future,it mainly depends on the purchase of carbon emission rights across regions.In order to achieve the coordinated development of social economy and environmental protection,Liaoning should reasonably adjust the industrial structure,reduce the Engel coefficient of households,pay attention to the use of clean energy,strengthen the construction of the forestation projects and improve economic efficiency under the mode of cross-regional transactions.