新高考改革对“双一流”建设高校生源质量的影响——基于2014—2020年浙江省录取数据的实证研究

The Impact of College Entrance Examination Reform on Admissions Quality of the “Double First-Class” Construction Universities:Evidence from Admissions Data from Zhejiang(2014-2020)

基于2014—2020年"双一流"建设高校在浙江的录取数据,采用多种策略保证改革前后文理科位次的可比性,并建立中断时间序列模型后发现:新高考改革前"双一流"建设高校的生源质量呈现下降趋势,而随着高考改革的推进,生源质量呈现上升趋势,主要体现在人文、社科、经管、工学和实验班在改革后生源质量显著提高,且热门专业的生源质量提升幅度大于非热门专业,"一流大学建设高校"的生源提升幅度大于"一流学科建设高校"。此外,"一流大学建设高校"中非热门专业生源质量的提升大于"一流学科建设高校"的热门专业,说明新高考改革更加满足了学生对"好学校"的需求,在"热门专业"与"好学校"的权衡中学生更倾向于"好学校"。

By using admissions data of the"Double First-Class"construction universities from Zhejiang Province in 2014-2020, multiple strategies to equate students’ exam ranking, and an interrupted time series model,this paper draws the following conclusions. Admissions quality of"Double First-Class"construction universities declines before the reform, while gradually improves significantly after the reform. Majors in humanity, social science, economics and business, engineering and comprehensive experimental class experienced an increase in admissions quality significantly;popular majors increase more than unpopular majors;and the Double First-Class Universities improves more than those universities of First-Class Disciplines. Besides, the unpopular majors in the"Double First-Class"construction universities improves more than the popular majors in the universities of FirstClass Disciplines, which shows that students are more likely to prefer college quality in the tradeoff between college quality and major popularity.