明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件与气候耦合关系

Coupling relationship between mass-death events and climate in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty

从历史文献中提取明代(1368—1644年)江淮流域人口大量死亡事件,构建10 a尺度的事件频次、县次和广度序列,复原了人口大量死亡事件的时空及致灾因子特征,并分析事件与气候的耦合关系。结果表明:①明代江淮流域人口大量死亡事件共847次,自然灾害是影响人口大量死亡事件的主要因素且以旱灾、疫灾、水灾和潮灾为主;②人口大量死亡事件具有显著的阶段性和间歇式爆发特征,呈少—多—少—多的循环交替;③空间上表现为人口大量死亡事件集中在长三角地区,呈现阶梯状分布;④事件致灾因子中单因子占比最多(达83.8%),以旱灾、水灾、潮灾、疫灾和战乱为主。回归分析显示,气候冷暖与人口大量死亡事件呈显著负相关关系,气候冷暖可以解释人口大量死亡事件的25.4%~35.1%;气候干湿与人口大量死亡事件呈显著负相关关系,气候干湿变化可以解释人口大量死亡事件的10.5%~12.6%。明代气候变化在人口大量死亡事件上占据重要地位,气候变化进一步加剧了江淮流域人口大量死亡事件的程度。

A large number of mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty(1368—1644)were extracted from historical documents;a 10a-scale sequence of event frequencies,counties and breadths was constructed;the characteristics of time and space and hazard factors of the large number of death events were restored;and the coupling relationship between events and climate was analyzed.The results show that:①There happened a total of 847 mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin in the Ming Dynasty.Natural disasters,such as droughts,epidemics,floods and tides,were the main factors causing the mass deaths of the population.②Mass-death events of the population showed significant phased and intermittent outbreak characteristics,with a cycle of fewer-more-fewer-more.③Spatially,a large number of deaths of the population were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta,showing a ladder-like distribution.④Single factors accounted for the largest proportion(83.8%)of the disaster-causing factors of the mass-death events,among which droughts,floods,tides,epidemics and wars were the main ones.Regression analysis shows that there was a significant negative correlation between climate coldness and warmth and mass-death events.Cold and warm climate could explain 25.4%−35.1%of the large number of deaths.Meanwhile,dry and wet climate also had a significant negative correlation with mass-death events.Dry and wet climate could explain 10.5%−12.6%of the mass deaths of the population.Therefore,it can be said that climate change in the Ming Dynasty played an important role in the mass-death events,which further aggravated the mass-death events in the Yangtze-Huaihe Basin.