贫困地区农户社会资本对信贷违约影响研究

Research on the Influence of Farmers'Social Capital on Credit Default in Poverty-Stricken Areas

贫困地区的信贷发展较为落后,其原因之一是农户信贷违约风险较大,因此有效识别农户信贷违约影响因素至关重要。作为贫困地区农户的一项重要资源,社会资本是维系其信贷的核心因素。本文基于对贫困地区农户的实地调查,探求社会资本对贫困地区农户信贷违约的影响机制,通过Probit模型求证不同类型社会资本对贫困地区农户信贷违约的影响作用。研究结果表明,不同类型的社会资本对信贷违约的影响有所差异--正式社会资本会显著降低农户信贷违约的可能性,而非正式社会资本会显著增加农户信贷违约的可能性。此外若户主为男性、家庭有重大支出或有较大规模的贷款,就会提高农户贷款违约概率;家庭固定总资产越多、家庭上年纯收入越高或非农收入占总收入的比重越大,农户的贷款违约概率就会越低。

Credit development in poverty-stricken areas is relatively backward. One of the reasons is that farmers have a higher risk of credit default. Therefore, it is crucial to effectively identify the influencing factors of farmers′ credit default. As an integral resource for farmers in poverty-stricken areas, social capital is the core factor to maintain their credit. Based on the field investigation of farmers in poverty-stricken areas, the influencing mechanism of social capital on their credit default was explored. Through the Probit model, the influence of different types of social capital on farmers′ credit default in those areas was verified. The results show that different types of social capital have different effects on credit default: formal social capital(such as farmers being party members or rural officials) will significantly reduce the possibility of farmers′ credit default, while informal social capital(such as household gift expenditure) will significantly increase such possibility. In addition, if the head of household is male, the family has significant expenditure or large-scale loans, which will increase the possibility of farmers′ credit default. The more the fixed assets of a family, the higher the net income of a family in the previous year or the greater the proportion of non-agricultural income in the total income, and the lower possibility of the credit default farmers will incur.