低碳经济环境下物流业网络构建对城镇化发展的影响

The Impact on Chinese Logistics Industry Development of Urbanization Construction Under a Low-Carbon Economy Society

利用1991—2011年的数据,使用Johansen协整检验和方差分解等定量方法,从经验和动态角度分析了中国物流业发展与城镇化建设之间的互动效应及中国物流业发展和城镇化对碳排放强度的影响。结果表明:第一,物流业发展的增加及人口城镇化可能导致碳排放强度增长。第二,我国物流业发展与城镇化建设之间存在长期持续的互动关系。低碳物流业的发展与城镇化建设的相互影响形成一个反馈系统。第三,物流业发展对城镇化建设具有较强的持续促进作用,且促进作用明显大于城镇化建设对物流业发展的促进作用。低碳物流业的发展能够调配城镇功能,并降低对于环境的影响,但由于城镇化建设对于低碳物流业的促进作用较弱,仍可能对碳减排目标的实现构成重大威胁。为了能够应对减排的挑战,仍需要寻求低碳经济下城镇化发展的方案。

The paper based on data from 1991 to 2011,Johansen co-integration test and variance decomposition is used to analyze the interaction effect between the logistics industry development and urbanization in China and China’s logistics industry.The results showed that:(1)Carbon intensity cointegration relationship among other factors.The increase of logistics industry and urbanization may result in carbon emission intensity of growth.(2)There are long-lasting interaction between the development of the logistics industry and urban construction in China.(3)The logistics industry has a strong positive role in promoting the continued urbanization,significantly greater than the effect of urbanization on the development of the logistics industry.Development of low-carbon logistics can mobilize the urban functions,and reduce the impact on the environment,but because of urbanization is weak for the promotion of the role of the logistics industry,carbon reduction targets may still difficult to achieve.In order to meet the challenges of carbon emission,urbanization still need to seek solutions under the low-carbon economy society.