中国城镇化对环境污染的空间溢出与门槛效应研究

Study on the Spatial Spillover Effect and Threshold Effect of Urbanization on Environmental Pollution in China

基于2000—2017年中国31个省份的面板数据,建立空间面板杜宾模型和面板门槛回归模型,对城镇化与环境污染的关系进行实证分析和相应的政策讨论。结果表明:中国环境污染存在明显的正向空间依赖性和空间异质性,东部地区主要表现为高—高集聚类型,西部地区主要表现为低—低集聚类型;城镇化对环境污染的影响具有显著的空间外溢效应,且区域间的溢出效应大于区域内的本地效应;城镇化与环境污染呈倒"U"型曲线关系,拐点发生在城镇化水平达到86.16%处;城镇化对环境污染的影响存在门槛特征,随着经济规模的扩大,城镇化对环境污染的正向影响逐渐减弱,随着第三产业与第二产业比值的增加,城镇化对环境污染的正向影响先增强后减弱。基于此,提出建立区域环境污染协同治理机制、制定差异化的产业结构调整策略、加强环保技术的研发与推广、积极倡导绿色生活方式等政策建议。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017,this paper uses both spatial Durbin model and panel threshold regression to analyze the relationship between urbanization and environmental pollution and discuss the corresponding policies.The results show that there are obvious positive spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity in the environmental pollution of provinces in China.The eastern region is mainly in the form of high-high agglomeration,while the western region is mainly in the form of low-low agglomeration.Urbanization has a significant spatial spillover effect on the environmental pollution,and the spillover effect between regions is greater than within regions.The relationship between urbanization and environmental pollution shows an inverted "U" shaped curve,and the inflection point occurs when the level of urbanization reaches up to 86.16%.There are threshold characteristics in the impact of urbanization on environmental pollution.With the expansion of economic scale,the positive impact of urbanization on environmental pollution gradually weakens.With the increase of the ratio of the tertiary industry to the secondary industry,the positive impact of urbanization on environmental pollution first increases and then weakens.Based on this,this paper proposes some policy suggestions for policy making,such as to establish regional environmental pollution coordinated governance mechanism,to make differentiated adjustment strategy of industrial structure,to strengthen the research and development and promotion of environmental protection technology,and to advocate green lifestyle actively.