后疫情时代下新冠肺炎疫情对中国服务经济影响——基于多期双重差分模型的研究

The Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic on China's Service Economy in Post Epidemic Era——A Study Based on a Multi Period Double Difference Model

本文使用中国31个省、直辖市和自治区2019年6月~2020年9月共16个月的月度面板数据,采用多期双重差分(DID)方法,分别就新冠肺炎疫情对服务业中的快递行业、金融行业、公路货运行业和进出口行业的影响展开分析,研究结果表明:疫情对快递行业和金融行业的影响有显著正向影响,对进出口企业和公路货运行业有显著负向影响。进一步,采用三重差分模型进行地区异质性与禀赋异质性检验后发现,疫情对东部地区的快递业影响不显著,对中西部地区的快递行业收入有显著正向影响;疫情对东部沿海地区的进出口总额有显著负向影响,对中西部进出口总额影响不显著;疫情对东部、中西部金融存贷款的影响均显著为正;疫情对东部地区公路货运量的影响显著为负,对中西部的影响显著为正。疫情与2019年卫生人员三重差分模型显示,对快递行业收入的影响显著为负;对公路货运量和进出口影响不显著;对金融存贷款影响显著为正。疫情与2019年人口资源禀赋三重差分模型显示,对快递行业收入、进出口总额和金融存贷款影响显著为正;对公路货运量影响不显著。

As the service industry is closely related to economic development and people's daily life,there will be a big conflict between the prevention measures needed to stop the spread of new coronavirus pneumonia.Therefore,the outbreak of the epidemic will have a serious impact on the development of the service industry.Based on the monthly panel data of 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from June 2019 to September 2020,this paper uses the multi period did method to analyze the impact of the epidemic on the express delivery industry,financial industry,highway freight industry and import and export industry in the service industry import and export enterprises and road freight industry have significant negative impact.Furthermore,the triple did model was used to test the regional heterogeneity and endowment heterogeneity.The results showed that the epidemic had no significant impact on the express delivery industry in the eastern region,but had a significant positive impact on the income of the express industry in the central and western regions;the epidemic had a significant negative impact on the total import and export of the eastern coastal areas,but had no significant impact on the total import and export volume of the central and western regions;the epidemic situation had a significant impact on the total import and export of the eastern and central and western regions;the impact of the epidemic on the road freight volume in the eastern region is significantly negative,and the impact on the Western China is significantly positive.The triple did model of epidemic situation and health personnel in 2019 shows that the income of express delivery industry is significantly negative;the impact on Highway freight volume and import and export is not significant;the impact on Financial deposit and loan is significantly positive.The triple did model of epidemic situation and population resource endowment in 2019 shows that the impact on express industry income is significantly positive;the impact on total import and export is significantly positive;the impact on Highway freight volume is not significant;and the impact on Financial deposit and loan is significantly positive.