我国污染排放变动趋势及减排路径研究——基于环境投入产出模型结构分解分析

Research on the Changing Trend of Pollution Emission and Emission Reduction Path in China-Based on the Structural Decomposition of Environmental Input-output Model

编制了环境投入产出表,构建了相应的环境投入产出模型,并对其进行结构分解(SDA),深入探究污染排放系数(减排技术)、生产技术以及最终需求的变动三种因素对我国七种大气污染物排放的影响。结果表明:我国污染排放量整体增加,其中排放系数变动减少污染物的排放,最终需求变动增加污染物的排放,生产技术变动少量增加污染物排放,整体上看,生产技术变动效应明显小于其它两种效应。因此,排放系数(减排技术)的变化是目前减排的主要路径。

At present,pollution emissions both from the domestic development trend and from the international effect have become the focus of all sectors of society,and China s emission reduction task is still a long way to go.The key of effective emission reduction is to identify the factors that cause the increase of pollution emission,so as to find out the optimal emission reduction path and realize the purpose of emission reduction.Based on this,this paper compiled the environmental input-output table,constructed the corresponding environmental input-output model,and carried out structural decomposition(SDA)on it,so as to further explore the impact of three factors of pollution emission coefficient(emission reduction technology),production technology and the change of final demand on the emission of seven kinds of air pollutants.The analysis results showed that the entire increase in China s emissions,including reducing emissions of pollutants discharge coefficient changes,changes in final demand increase emissions of pollutants,the production technology changes is a small pollutant emission.Production technical change effects are much smaller than other two kinds of effects.Therefore,the change of emission coefficient(emission reduction technology)is the main path of emission reduction.