新冠肺炎疫情背景下台湾宏观经济形势及其影响因素分析

An Analysis of Macroeconomic Situation and Its Influencing Factorsin Taiwan under the Background of the COVID-19

2020年,在新冠肺炎疫情背景下,台湾地区经济总量实现相对高速增长,但疫情对于岛内不同行业的影响有显著差异。从生产和需求角度分别加以考察,2020年台湾经济增长的主要动力来自制造业和出口。研究结果表明,台湾宏观经济受疫情冲击较为有限,主要是因为疫情催生“远距经济”等新业态,众多5G技术应用场景加速落地,激发资讯电子产品的市场需求,使岛内资讯电子工业产值大幅上升,有效弥补了传统制造业部门产值下滑所产生的缺口,推升了台湾制造业总体产值。祖国大陆作为台湾资讯电子产品最主要的目标市场和生产据点,在较短时间内有效控制疫情,全面复工复产,并且充分发挥新一代信息技术对于疫情防控和复工复产工作的支撑作用,有力助推了台湾资讯电子产品的生产和销售。正因如此,疫情防控期间,两岸进出口额逆势增长,大大改善了台湾对外贸易状况,这是疫情背景下台湾宏观经济形势保持稳定的关键外部因素。

In the first three quarters of 2020,the private consumption in Taiwan has shrunk sharply and the output value of some traditional manufacturing sectors and service industries has declined significantly.Meanwhile,the unemployment rate has increased while the growth rate of import and export trade has slowed down.However,the macroeconomic situation is,in general,relatively stable.The findings show that the impact of the pandemic on Taiwan's macro-economy is relatively limited,mainly because it has spawned some new formats such as“remote economy”,which has accelerated the implementation of artificial intelligence products in various application scenes and stimulated the market demand for information and electronic products.As a result,it has greatly increased the output value of information and electronic industry in Taiwan and effectively narrowed the gap caused by the decline in the output value of traditional manufacturing sectors,thus greatly increasing the total output value of Taiwan manufacturing industry.As the most important target market and production base of Taiwan information and electronic products,the mainland has effectively controlled the COVID-19 in a short period of time and its new generation of information technology is playing a supporting role in epidemic prevention and control as well as resumption of production,which has effectively promoted the production and sales of Taiwan information and electronic products.Therefore,at this stage,the cross-Strait import and export volume has increased against the trend,which greatly improves the Taiwan foreign trade situation.This is the key external factor for the relative stability of Taiwan macroeconomic situation under the background of the COVID-19.