末次间冰期以来濒危植物藤枣适生区空间迁移预测

Prediction on Spatial Migration of Suitable Distribution of Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman Since Last Inter Glacial

【目的】预测气候变化下物种适生区的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要意义。【方法】以国家I级濒危植物藤枣为研究对象,采用ENMeval数据包优化Max Ent默认参数,基于8个环境变量和19个地理分布位置,模拟预测藤枣在末次间冰期、末次盛冰期、全新世中期、RCP4.5气候情景下2050和2070年的潜在地理分布区;运用VIF方差膨胀因子、Spearman相关分析和刀切法挑选出主要环境因子。【结果】ENMeval结果表明:当特征组合为线性、二次型与片段化,调控倍率为2.5时,Akaike信息量准则AICc值为0,此时的模型为最优模型;刀切法结果表明:温度年较差、最冷季度降水量、年降水量和最冷月最低气温是影响藤枣分布的主要环境因子;Max Ent预测结果显示:末次间冰期以来藤枣适生区几何中心呈现往西北迁移的趋势,相邻2个时期最大的迁移距离为172.1 km,当前到2050和2070年的迁移距离分别为15.6、47.1 km。【结论】气候变化影响藤枣的地理分布变迁,未来气候变暖促使藤枣适生区向高纬度地区扩张,研究结果为有效保护藤枣提供了有利科学依据。

【Objective】Predicting the spatial variation trend of suitable habitats of species under future climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation.【Method】In the present study,Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman,the national first endangered plant,was used as the research object,and the ENMeval data package was used to optimize MaxEnt default parameters.Based on 8 environmental variables and 19 geographical distribution locations,the potential geographical distribution areas of Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman in 2050 and 2070 under the last inter glacial,the last glacial maximum,the middle holocene,and the RCP4.5 climate scenarios were simula-ted and predicted.VIF variance expansion factor,spearman correlation analysis and jackknife method were used to select the main environ-mental factors.【Result】The ENMeval results showed that when the feature combination was linear,quadratic and hinge,the regulation mul-tiplier was 2.5,the AICc value of akaike information criterion was 0,and then the model was the optimal model.The results of jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman were the temperature an-nual range,the precipitation of coldest quarter,the annual precipitation,and the min temperature of coldest month.The prediction results of MaxEnt showed that since the Last Inter Glacial,the geometric center of suitable habitats of Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman showed a trend of migration to the northwest.The maximum migration distance between two adjacent periods was 172.1 km.The current mi-gration distances to 2050 and 2070 were 15.6 and 47.1 km.【Conclusion】Climate change affects the geographical distribution of Eleutharrhe-na macrocarpa(Diels)Forman,and the future climate warming will promote the expansion of suitable habitats of Eleutharrhena macrocarpa(Diels)Forman to high latitudes.The research results provide a favorable scientific basis for the effective protection of Eleutharrhena macro-carpa(Diels)Forman.