“一带一路”中老泰铁路运输风险评价及保费研究

On the Transport Risk and Insurance of China-Laos-Thailand Railway along the Belt and Road

随着“一带一路”设施联通建设的不断推进,作为泛亚铁路中线工程的中老泰铁路也是其中重要的一部分。为研究一带一路中老泰铁路货物运输风险以及相关保费计算,本文首先采用层次分析法得到铁路货物运输过程中存在的政治因素、气候因素、运维因素和自然力因素的风险以及不同风险因素组合的权重;其次基于N-K模型对风险进行耦合,并且结合权重计算风险耦合值,根据风险耦合值划分风险区间,不同风险区间对应的附加费率不同,最后利用保费计算公式可以得到保险费用。本文末以中老泰铁路运输水果为例,基于不同风险因素的耦合得到15个风险耦合值,并计算保费,得出不同风险下的保费结果。

With the development of"the Belt and Road Initiative"infrastructure connection,china-laos and china-thailand railways are also important parts of Trans-Asian Railway middle line project.In order to study the risk of china-laos and china-thailand railways freight transportation in"Belt And Road Initiative"and the calculation of relevant insurance premium,this paper firstly uses analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to obtain the weights of political factors,climate factors,operation,maintenance factors,natural factors and combinations of different risk factor.Secondly,the risk is coupled based on the N-K model,and the risk coupling value is calculated based on the weight.According to the risk coupling value,the risk interval is divided,and the additional rate corresponding to different risk intervals is different.Finally,the insurance premium can be obtained by using premium calculation formula.At the end of this paper,taking china-laothailand railway transportation fruit as an example,15 risk coupling values are obtained based on the coupling of different risk factors,and obtain the premium under different risks.