生态阈值确定方法综述

A review on the methods of determining ecological thresholds

生态系统在环境条件变化时表现出的剧变或阈值现象是当前生态学研究的热点,但是生态阈值定量检测的困难阻碍了这一主题的研究与应用。本文从典型案例入手,通过分析潜在生态阈值的S型曲线式、补给-压力式和跃迁式驱动-响应机理,归纳了局部加权回归散点平滑法、分段回归、高斯模型、拐点分析软件、稳态转换检测软件、指示种阈值分析和系统动力学仿真模型7种生态阈值确定方法,并评述了其优缺点和适用性,以期为生态阈值的定量分析研究提供方法借鉴。

The drastic changes or threshold phenomena of ecosystems in response to environmental changes are main research focuses in ecology. However, the difficulty in quantitative detection of ecological thresholds hinders the further research progress and application of this topic. Based on typical cases, we analzyed the driving-response mechanism of S-shaped curve type, subsidy-stress type, step type of the potential ecological thresholds. Seven methods to determine ecological thre-shold were summarized, including locally weighted scatterplot smoothing, piecewise regression, Gaussian model, change-point analyzer, regime shift detection, threshold indicator taxa analysis and system dynamics simulation model. The advantages, disadvantages and applicability of those methods were also addressed. This study could provide references for quantitative detection of ecological threshold.