美国因何对全球贸易机制不满:基于社会网络的分析

Why Is the United States Dissatisfied with Global Trade Institutions?A Research Based on Social Network Analysis

在国际关系实践中,霸权国并非总是维护由其主导建立的国际机制,有时会反常地对相关机制表现出不满倾向,甚至破坏机制的运行。此类不满倾向属于有限的修正主义,与谋求彻底推翻国际秩序有本质区别,并主要体现为对全球经济、贸易等机制安排的不满。这一有限修正主义倾向是由霸权国自身竞争力减弱、面临崛起国家的激烈竞争及国际机制本身的变化所致。借助社会网络分析的视角和方法,通过研究第二次世界大战后全球贸易关系网络及美国在其中地位的变化,可以发现美国在全球贸易关系中的地位呈下降态势,具体表现为美国在全球贸易关系网络中的重要性下降,在全球贸易安排网络内面临边缘化,而新兴大国在贸易网络中的重要程度提升,这对美国的地位构成挑战。由此导致美国从全球贸易机制中获益能力下降,进而产生有限的修正主义倾向。

In international relations,hegemonic powers do not always maintain the international institutions they established.Sometimes they show an abnormal dissatisfaction with the existing institutions or even destroy their operations.This type of dissatisfaction is a kind of limited revisionism,which is different than seeking to overthrow the international order completely and is mainly reflected in dissatisfaction with global economic,trade,and other institutional arrangements.This tendency of limited revisionism is caused by the weakening of the competitiveness of the hegemonic power,the fierce competition from rising powers,and change in institutions.Adopting the perspective and method of social network analysis and drawing on the study of the global trade relations network and the changing status of the United States in it after the World War II,this research finds that the status of the United States in global trade relations is declining.Specifically,the importance of the United States in the global trade relations network is declining and the United States is facing marginalization in the global trade arrangement network while the importance of emerging powers in the trade network has increased,which poses a challenge to the status of the United States.As a result,the ability of the United States to benefit from global trade institutions declined and showed a limited revisionist tendency.