美日核关系研究:基于《美日核能协定》的分析

Nuclear Relations between the United States and Japan:An Analysis of the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Cooperation Agreement

冷战初期,由于日本国内的"核过敏"情绪,美国对日本的核保护存在结构性缺陷,加之后来中国核试验的冲击及加入《不扩散核武器条约》的双重压力,使日本逐步确立了将拥核路线寄托于民用核能事业发展之中的"核避险"战略。为安抚日本同时牵制中国、威慑苏联,美国不惜冒着核扩散的风险在核燃料后处理问题上偏袒日本。1988年《美日核能协定》的通过使日本获得"核避险"战略的物质基础和制度性保障。冷战后,东北亚地区安全风险的增加,以及美国的相对衰弱使日本的右倾保守化加剧,日本在军事和安保领域的自主性不断增强,不断出现拥核言论。为缓解日本的焦虑同时威慑潜在竞争对手,美日延伸威慑机制不断得到强化。在一系列的政治、军事合作当中,《美日核能协定》的续约具有不同寻常的意义。它意味着在对冲日益高涨的地区安全不确定性和彻底摆脱"战后体制"的共同需求下,日本长期坚持的"核避险"战略得以延续。而美日这种特殊的核关系或将给原本已经十分复杂的地区核态势带来更大的压力。

At the beginning of the Cold War,Japan gradually established a"nuclear hedging"strategy of relying on the development of civil nuclear energy.This shift was due to the"nuclear allergy"in Japan,the structural defects of the U.S.nuclear protection for Japan,the impact of China\s nuclear testing,and the dual pressure of joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT).In order at the same time to appease Japan,contain China,and deter the Soviet Union,the United States took the risk of nuclear proliferation to favor Japan on the issue of nuclear fuel reprocessing.The adoption of the U.S.-Japan Nuclear Cooperation Agreement in 1988 provided Japan with the material basis and institutional guarantee for the"nuclear hedging"strategy.After the Cold War,the increase of security risks in Northeast Asia and the relative weakness of the United States have intensified Japan\s conservatism,enhanced Japan\s autonomy in the military and security fields,and led to pro-nuclear discourse in Japan.In order to ease Japan\s anxiety and deter potential competitors,the extended deterrence mechanism of the United States and Japan has been continuously strengthened.In a series of political and military cooperation,the renewal of the nuclear agreement between the two countries is of unusual significance.It means that Japan\s long-term strategy of"nuclear hedging"can continue under the common demand of hedging the rising regional security uncertainty and getting rid of the"post-war system".However,the special nuclear relationship between the United States and Japan may bring more pressure to the already complex regional nuclear situation.