2010~2018年中国交通行业污染排放健康影响分析

Health impact analysis of air pollution from China's transportation industry in 2010~2018.

以PM_(2.5)为标志性污染物,构建了交通行业“能源消耗-污染排放-健康影响”评估模型,旨在了解我国交通行业污染排放对居民健康影响的程度和趋势.2010~2018年,我国交通行业PM_(2.5)排放量在38.4~42.78万t波动,道路和水路部门贡献了97%左右的排放量;历年交通行业污染排放引起的居民健康损失相近,以2018年为例,全因早逝人数为14.9万例,心血管疾病住院15.91万例,呼吸系统疾病住院10.37万例,心血管疾病门诊641.69万例,呼吸系统疾病门诊630.99万例;交通行业污染排放造成的健康经济损失则增长迅速,由2010年的1380.13亿元增长到2018年的3479.42亿元,约占历年全国GDP的0.33%~0.39%.

Taking PM_(2.5)as a landmark pollutant,this paper constructed an energy consumption-pollution emission-health impact model for transportation industry,aiming to understand the degree and trend of the impact of pollution emission from the transportation industry on public health in China.From 2010 to 2018,the emission of PM_(2.5)in China's transportation industry fluctuated between 384000t and 427800t,with roads and waterways contributing about 97%of the total emissions;The health losses of public health caused by transportation industry’s pollution emission were similar over the years,taking 2018 as an example,there were 149000 total non-accidental mortality,159100 and 103700 hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases,6416900 and 6309900 cases for cardiovascular and respiratory outpatient service;The health economic loss increased rapidly,from 13.8013 billion Yuan in 2010 to 34.7942 billion Yuan in 2018,accounting for 0.33%~0.39%of the national GDP over the years.