新疆棉花主产区土地流入对棉花生产的影响

Effects of land inflow in main cotton production areas of Xinjiang on cotton production

科学测定土地流入对棉花生产的影响,识别棉花适度经营规模范围,对推进土地流转和确保棉花产业安全具有重要意义。文中基于新疆棉花主产区591份棉花种植户的微观数据,利用倾向值匹配法测算了土地流入对棉花生产的影响。结果表明:考虑样本农户自选择和内生性问题后,土地流入使籽棉亩产量平均提升29.20kg;在现有的技术水平下,棉花种植规模与棉花单产水平之间呈“倒U型”关系,盲目扩大生产规模会降低土地流入对于棉花增产效果。因此,文中研究认为政府应营造良好的土地流转环境,规范土地流转市场,促进土地流转,但要合理控制经营规模,以实现棉花种植的适度规模经营。

It is of great significance to scientifically measure the impact of land inflow on cotton production and identify the appropriate scope of cotton business scale for promoting land transfer and ensuring the safety of cotton industry.Based on the micro data of 591 cotton growers in the main cotton producing areas of Xinjiang,we estimated the impact of land inflow on cotton production by using trend value matching method.The results showed that:considering the self selection and endogeneity of sample farmers,the average yield of seed cotton per mu increased by 29.20kg.Under the existing technical level,the relationship between cotton planting scale and cotton yield per unit area was inverted U-shaped,and blind expansion of production scale would reduce the effect of land inflow on cotton yield.Therefore,the government should create a good land circulation environment,standardize the land circulation market,and promote the land transfer,but it should reasonably control the scale of operation to realize the moderate scale operation of cotton planting.