新时代江苏县域经济增长动力的结构性特征

Structural Characteristics of Drivers of Economic Growth in Countries of Jiangsu Province in the New Era

经济发展高质量是江苏“六个高质量发展”的核心所在,提高全要素生产率水平则是经济高质量发展的关键环节。采用超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型对江苏54个县(市、区)2000—2018年全要素生产率增长率进行测算,探讨江苏县域经济增长的动力结构性特征。采用聚类分析法,将江苏县域生产效率分成三种不同效率的结构类型,避免了传统地域划分的缺陷。研究结果:(1)2008年金融危机后,江苏县域TFP增长率受到显著影响,呈断崖式下降,2012年触底反弹后稳定增长。(2)在江苏县域经济增长贡献结构中,资本贡献最高,全要素生产率贡献次之,劳动贡献最低。(3)各阶段、各类县域经济增长动力呈现结构性差异,源于区位优势、基础优势和政策优势形成的TFP差异以及资本投入的挤压效应,影响着江苏县域经济发展的动力结构。从强化科技资源基础优势、推进引领性创新成果产业化、推动创新要素适度向优能县域集聚、控制中低端产业要素投入和强化全省产业体系布局的协同效率等角度提出增强县域经济增长新动能的政策建议。

The high-quality economic growth is the core of Jiangsu Province's Six High-quality developments,and improving the total-factor productivity is an important part for the high-quality economic growth.The stochastic frontier approach of translog production function is used to calculate the growth rate of the total-factor productivity in 54 counties(or cities and districts)in Jiangsu Province from 2000 to 2018.The structural characteristics of drivers of economic growth in counties of Jiangsu Province are discussed.The clustering analysis is used to divide the productivity in Jiangsu's counties into three structure types with different rates of efficiency to avoid the deficiencies seen in the traditional territorial divisions.The research results are shown as follows.First,the TFP growth rate of counties in Jiangsu Province was significantly affected after the financial crisis in 2008,and it plummeted.Later,it hit the lowest level in 2012,bottomed out and increased stably.Second,among those drivers of economic growth in counties of Jiangsu Province,capital made the largest contribution,followed by the total-factor productivity and labor.Third,drivers of economic growth at different countries in different periods have structural differences,which results from differences in TFP formed by the regional advantages,basic advantages and policy advantages as well as from the squeeze effect of capital input,which affects the structure of drivers of economic growth in Jiangsu's counties.Some proposes are made to strengthen the new drivers of county economy from the perspectives of reinforcing the advantages of scientific and technological resources,promoting the industrialization of leading innovative products,properly driving the elements of innovation into the high-efficiency counties,controlling the input of mid and low-end industry factors and strengthening the cooperation rate of Jiangsu Province's industry system.