赛次轮次赛制下投掷选手竞技表现及成绩特征的实证研究

Empirical Study of the Distribution Characteristics of Throwing Players’ Achievements and Changes in Competitive Performance under the Second Round Rules

运动员竞技表现是日常训练干预与赛场竞技发挥的综合效应,其中比赛过程中赛次轮次设置、参赛目的、体能及技战术安排是发挥训练水平与创造优异运动成绩的重要因素。过往研究较多从竞技表现概念、制约因素模型等理论方面予以探究,缺乏基于一定高质量大数据描述统计及数据挖掘基础上的综合定性与深入思考。鉴于此,该研究在对里约奥运会投掷项目运动成绩、犯规、弃权、成绩记录、试投成功率、发挥度等竞技表现指标描述与推断的基础上,采用文献资料法、数理统计法等方法对其稳定性、波动性、随机性、可控性及不可预测性等特征予以实证探析。其竞技表现为:1)资格赛至决赛赛程背景下,不同投掷项目弃权数量减少及犯规数量增加,弃权犯规比例未呈显著性差异。2)不同轮次背景下,不同投掷项目试投成功率、有效成绩数及发挥率上所体现的竞技表现稳定性呈显著性差异;不同性别及项目竞技表现波动性上未呈显著性差异。3)不同项目在竞技表现可控性及预测性上呈显著性差异,不同性别未呈显著性差异;竞技实力是获取优异运动成绩及比赛名次的首要因素,不同项目及水平运动员预决赛阶段的竞技发挥未呈显著性差异。4)不同项目决赛阶段各名次所属最佳运动成绩轮次呈现随机性,奖牌选手多在较后发力,其余选手更多在较前轮次用力。其机制原因赛事设置既定赛次轮次比赛目的客观规则要求、赛前不同竞技水平运动员参赛任务的运动员个体诉求、赛次轮次比赛期内运动员体能水平及生理周期内在变化等。基于此,其参赛策略为运动员应根据参赛目的,自身竞技实力及赛场状态,遵循赛次轮次设置、场地气候变化等外界因素制约,采取赛前计划及赛中调整(弃权、犯规),合理分配体能水平与发挥技术优势,同时提高运动训练质量、增强综合竞技实力、培养心理调整能力,以求最大限度发挥训练水平及竞技实力。

Athletes’ athletic performance is a comprehensive effect of daily training intervention and field competition,in which the setting of the second round,the purpose of participation,physical fitness and technical and tactical arrangements are important factors to play the training level and create excellent sports achievements. The constraint model and other theoretical aspects are explored,and there is a lack of comprehensive qualitative and in-depth thinking based on certain high-quality big data description statistics and data mining. In view of this,on the basis of the description and inference of competitive performance indicators such as athletic performance index such as athletic performance,foul,abstention,achievement record,test success rate and play degree of the Rio Olympic Games,the research uses literature method,statistical method and other methods to empirically analyze its characteristics such as stability,volatility,randomness,controllability and uncontrollability. Its competitive performance is in the context of qualifying to the finals,the number of waivers and fouls in different throwing events decreased,and the proportion of abstention fouls did not show significant differences. Under the background of different rounds,the stability of competitive performance reflected in the success rate,effective results and play rate of different throwing items showed significant differences;Different items showed significant differences in the controllability and predictability of athletic performance,different genders did not show significant differences,competitive strength is the primary factor to obtain excellent sports performance and competition grade,different sports and level athletes in the pre-final stage of competitive play did not show significant differences. The best sports results of each of the final stages of different projects show randomness,with more medalists powering later and the rest more forced than the previous round. The mechanism reason for the event is to set the objective rules requirements for the purpose of the scheduled second round competition,the individual demands of the athletes participating in the tasks of athletes of different competitive levels before the competition,the physical level of the athletes and the internal changes in the physiological cycle during the competition period. Based on this,its entry strategy for athletes should be based on the purpose of participation,their own competitive strength and the state of the field,follow the set-up of the second round,venue climate change and other external factors,take pre-match planning and adjustment in the game(abstention,foul),reasonable distribution of physical fitness level and play a technical advantage,while improving the quality of sports training,enhance the comprehensive competitive strength,training psychological adjustment ability,in order to maximize the level of training and competitive strength.